Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:29:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FB
0xfb7b…027c
sports · 220 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$41 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$38 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized−$38
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses87 / 127
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)214 / 220
History coverage61d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 6 History 214 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$13
14 days−$23
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Over 3.5 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 24¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Under 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Barcelona La Laguna Tenerife 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 $0 -10%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +47%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 12 $1 $0 -16%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -50%
Set 1 Winner: Tan vs Tararudee Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -13%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $1 $0 -25%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $1 +$2 +232%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 212.5 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +61%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $3 −$1 -38%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 169.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +112%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +32%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $2 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -11%
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $1 +$1 +69%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 09 $1 +$2 +163%
Libema Open: Greet Minnen vs Janice Tjen Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Quentin Halys vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 09 $1 +$1 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +32%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2 +$2 +108%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $1 +$1 +108%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 61% −$24
crypto 17% −$11
other 15% −$4
weather 6% $0
politics 1% −$2
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $1 13m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 14m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 26m
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 47¢ $1 27m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 39¢ $1 52m
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $1 1h
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Barcelona BUY La Laguna Tenerife 52¢ $1 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) SELL Qatar 65¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 12h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 34¢ $1 18h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 24h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 24h
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 52¢ $1 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 37¢ $1 2d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic SELL Marin Cilic 41¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 44¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 2d
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang SELL Zhizhen Zhang 100¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 2d
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Rinky Hijikata 29¢ $1 2d
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 29¢ $1 2d
Set 1 Winner: Tan vs Tararudee BUY Tararudee 54¢ $1 2d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 52¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -12.4% -20.8% 40% 36% -21.0%
≤30d 188 -13.1% -21.4% 41% 38% -18.6%
≤90d 214 -15.1% -23.2% 41% 38% -19.4%
all 214 -15.1% -23.2% 41% 38% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 38% -19.4%
10% -30.5% 35% -27.1%
15% -37.2% 31% -34.2%
20% -43.4% 25% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.53 · official $6.55 (match) · 472 history records