Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:21:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb77…fd74 crypto 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$288 (-14%) realized −$286 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%18W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 37d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$330
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-39.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -16.1% -24.1% 50% 50% -10.7%
≤30d 18 -16.1% -24.1% 50% 50% -10.7%
≤90d 46 -32.6% -39.0% 39% 35% -24.4%
all 46 -32.6% -39.0% 39% 35% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.0% 35% -24.4%
10% -44.9% 28% -31.6%
15% -50.2% 26% -38.2%
20% -55.1% 20% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$32 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$286
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses18 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage37d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 54¢ 52¢ $75 $73 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$6 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $155 +$118 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 19 $52 −$42 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 19 $119 +$96 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $102 −$49 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET Jun 19 $145 +$125 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $101 −$86 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $154 −$117 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12PM ET Jun 19 $111 +$24 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $102 +$50 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$10 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 15 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 15 $33 +$31 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 15 $24 +$19 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 15 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8AM ET May 15 $26 −$17 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 15 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 15 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1PM ET May 13 $42 −$28 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 13 $41 +$27 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 13 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 13 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 13 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 13 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 13 $26 +$28 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 13 $10 +$13 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 13 $100 −$78 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $68 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $108 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $107 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $53 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $208 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $62 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 51m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.37 · official $70.57 · 146 history records