Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:29:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FB
0xfb76…0a16
sports · 38 markets active 2h ago
3.0score
−$1 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$16 · open −$13
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY sports specialist
Net worth$93
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses16 / 15
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)31 / 38
History coverage116d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 7 History 31 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days+$28
14 days+$28
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Diego Lopes 58¢ 57¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 50¢ $19 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 48¢ 40¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-18%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 62¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+8%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Germany 50¢ 50¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 12¢ $9 $2 −$7 (-79%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 10¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-75%)
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Yes 35¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Yes 58¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Massachusetts Minutemen Massachusetts Minutemen 24¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Türkiye to win the second half? Yes 54¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Arizona State Sun Devils: O/U 155.5 Over 54¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-8.5) Texas Tech Red Raiders 46¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Yes 49¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 31¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Scotland 46¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Down 51¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Türkiye to score first vs. Australia? Yes 64¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$5 +90%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 +$4 +90%
Türkiye to win the second half? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $36 −$36 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Türkiye to score first vs. Australia? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $19 +$10 +52%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 +$6 +114%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $8 +$8 +105%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 14 $19 −$19 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +75%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $4 +$8 +188%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $9 −$8 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 +$7 +70%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $7 +$8 +105%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 +$9 +89%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $6 −$1 -16%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$28 +145%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9 +$6 +71%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 +$24 +474%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$15 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Arizona State Sun Devils: O/U 155.5 Feb 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-8.5) Feb 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Feb 18 $10 +$10 +96%
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Massachusetts Minutemen Feb 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 62% +$14
other 37% −$10
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $11 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $9 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $9 1h
Türkiye to win the second half? BUY Yes 54¢ $19 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 5h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $5 5h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $5 5h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $5 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $11 5h
Türkiye to score first vs. Australia? BUY Yes 64¢ $14 5h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 46¢ $5 7h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 46¢ $6 7h
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 BUY Yes 58¢ $19 8h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $19 8h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 11h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $8 11h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $4 14h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $9 14h
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 33h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 33h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $7 38h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $0 2d
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 15¢ $5 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 95¢ $48 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $19 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +29.9% +17.5% 56% 56% +0.3%
≤30d 27 +29.9% +17.5% 56% 56% +0.3%
≤90d 27 +29.9% +17.5% 56% 56% +0.3%
all 31 +19.5% +8.1% 52% 52% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.1% 52% -4.5%
10% -2.3% 52% -13.6%
15% -11.7% 52% -22.0%
20% -20.4% 52% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.99 · official $92.99 (match) · 63 history records