Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:37:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FB 0xfb72…e2cd crypto 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$431 (+0%) realized +$39 · open +$392
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate80%59W / 15L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,448per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,870now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$180
7 days−$180
14 days−$180
30 days−$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% +$146
other 7% +$214
politics 6% −$4
sports 5% +$3
world 1% −$146
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.3% -11.6% 40% 0% -14.0%
≤30d 5 -2.3% -11.6% 40% 0% -14.0%
≤90d 9 -2.6% -11.9% 44% 0% -14.5%
all 74 -0.2% -9.7% 80% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$1,450) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$29 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$1,870
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$392
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses59 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)74 / 78
History coverage254d
Avg bet$1,448
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Yes 48¢ 58¢ $1,024 $1,240 +$216 (+21%)
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 18¢ 20¢ $233 $260 +$27 (+12%)
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 13¢ 20¢ $147 $228 +$81 (+55%)
Will Apyx launch a token by September 30, 2027? No 12¢ 24¢ $74 $142 +$68 (+93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? Jun 16 $365 +$10 +3%
Will Puffpaw launch a token by March 31, 2027? Jun 16 $370 −$11 -3%
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $537 −$29 -5%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,661 −$191 -12%
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 15 $721 +$40 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? May 01 $35 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $1,006 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 18 $1,138 −$146 -13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Apr 17 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Mar 04 $1,067 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on March 2? Mar 03 $4,347 +$4 +0%
Will Solana dip to $70 February 23-March 1? Mar 02 $4,342 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 1? Mar 02 $4,338 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Mar 01 $4,329 +$9 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $50-$60 on the final day of trading of th Feb 28 $1,464 +$1 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $110-$120 on the final day of trading of Feb 28 $2,258 +$2 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 23 above $130? Feb 28 $603 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 26? Feb 27 $4,321 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 24? Feb 25 $4,316 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 February 16-22? Feb 23 $4,312 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 21? Feb 22 $4,308 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 20? Feb 21 $4,303 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on February 19? Feb 20 $4,295 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on February 17? Feb 18 $4,290 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on February 16? Feb 17 $1,251 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on February 16 Feb 17 $1,371 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 15? Feb 16 $1,370 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 14? Feb 15 $1,368 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on February 13? Feb 14 $1,367 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on February 12? Feb 13 $1,353 +$14 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on February 10? Feb 11 $291 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on February 10? Feb 11 $1,061 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on February 9? Feb 10 $1,350 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 February 2-8? Feb 09 $1,347 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $60 on February 8? Feb 09 $282 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on February 8? Feb 09 $1,064 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 7? Feb 08 $1,341 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $1,317 +$26 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on February 5? Feb 06 $1,316 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on February 4? Feb 05 $395 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.80 and $1.90 on February 4? Feb 05 $919 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on February 3? Feb 04 $1,313 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 03 $1,024 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 1-7? Dec 08 $1,214 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.40 on December 7? Dec 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on December 7? Dec 08 $1,201 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on December 6? Dec 07 $1,212 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on December 5? Dec 06 $1,211 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on December 4? Dec 05 $1,207 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on December 3? Dec 03 $1,206 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 18¢ $23 38m
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $109 48m
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $152 49m
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $267 49m
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $724 50m
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 24¢ $67 57m
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $35 1h
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $340 1h
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 1h
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $52 1h
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $309 1h
Will Puffpaw launch a token by March 31, 2027? SELL No 28¢ $9 1h
Will Puffpaw launch a token by March 31, 2027? SELL No 32¢ $39 2h
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 27¢ $54 2h
Will Puffpaw launch a token by March 31, 2027? BUY No 50¢ $2 2h
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 23¢ $5 3h
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 23¢ $37 3h
Will Apyx launch a token by September 30, 2027? SELL No 27¢ $26 3h
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 20¢ $27 3h
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 16¢ $3 3h
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 13¢ $200 3h
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $12 3h
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 28¢ $37 3h
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $54 3h
Will Puffpaw launch a token by March 31, 2027? SELL No 31¢ $200 3h
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $95 3h
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $185 3h
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $161 3h
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $537 3h
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 24¢ $23 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,869.87 · official $1,869.87 (match) · 288 history records