Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:08:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb70…be84 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$22 (-1%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$477
7 days+$294
14 days+$202
30 days−$450
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$126
crypto 34% −$602
sports 18% +$370
world 8% −$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +60.7% +45.4% 33% 33% +19.3%
≤30d 9 +11.2% +0.6% 22% 22% -33.2%
≤90d 9 +11.2% +0.6% 22% 22% -33.2%
all 9 +11.2% +0.6% 22% 22% -33.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 22% -33.2%
10% -9.0% 22% -39.6%
15% -17.8% 22% -45.4%
20% -25.9% 22% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$457 vs −$195 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage18d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $324 −$315 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $101 +$445 +442%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $175 +$470 +268%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $49 −$22 -46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $188 −$183 -97%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $146 −$92 -63%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 31 $623 −$602 -96%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap May 31 $52 −$50 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $26 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $26 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $77 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $92 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 73¢ $109 4h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 61¢ $258 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 18¢ $101 4h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 4h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $26 4h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $100 4h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $50 4h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $49 5h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria BUY $51 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 10¢ $86 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes $54 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 12¢ $40 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 14¢ $100 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $96 18d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $100 18d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $104 18d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $52 18d
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes $52 18d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $73 18d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $95 18d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $104 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records