Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:17:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FB
0xfb69…06a9
weather · 378 markets active 2h ago
3.5score
+$1,607 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,495 · open +$112
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$962
Realized+$1,495
Unrealized+$112
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses314 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)376 / 378
Avg bet$305
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 376 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$99
7 days+$393
14 days+$598
30 days+$635
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Yes 88¢ 100¢ $800 $910 +$110 (+14%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 12? No 96¢ 100¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on May 3? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 27? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $68 $0 −$68 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on May 2? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 30? Yes 75¢ 0¢ $320 $0 −$320 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on May 6? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 9? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 28? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 26? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on May 3? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 7? No 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 9? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on May 8? No 92¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on May 10? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$12 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$9 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $80 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$10 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $58 +$8 +13%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $400 +$5 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $202 +$36 +18%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1,041 +$27 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $50 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $103 +$109 +106%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $401 +$26 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 6? Jun 06 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $39 +$21 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $200 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 6? Jun 06 $101 +$16 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 6? Jun 06 $401 +$21 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $101 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $201 +$12 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $200 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 5? Jun 05 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $50 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $81 +$23 +28%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $300 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $389 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 4? Jun 04 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $50 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $100 −$48 -47%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 3? Jun 03 $280 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 2? Jun 02 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 2? Jun 02 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 1? Jun 01 $859 +$10 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 1? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1,176 −$64 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 1? Jun 01 $551 +$16 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 1? Jun 01 $400 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 1? Jun 01 $7 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 1? Jun 01 $191 +$35 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on May 31? Jun 01 $50 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$1,607
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 92¢ $602 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 76¢ $202 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $50 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? BUY No 94¢ $50 25h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 11? BUY No 93¢ $50 27h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 11? BUY No 80¢ $50 28h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 11? BUY No 84¢ $50 28h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $20 28h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? BUY No 93¢ $50 29h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $50 30h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $80 31h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? BUY No 93¢ $50 31h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 10? BUY No 87¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 10? BUY No 93¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? BUY No 83¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? BUY No 98¢ $100 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on June 10? BUY No 84¢ $202 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $300 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on June 10? BUY No 98¢ $100 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 7? BUY No 99¢ $200 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 7? BUY Yes 99¢ $300 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 7? BUY Yes 98¢ $50 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 7? BUY Yes 98¢ $200 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 7? BUY Yes 95¢ $190 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 7? BUY Yes 97¢ $301 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 6? BUY No 64¢ $39 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on June 6? BUY No 98¢ $200 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 6? BUY No 96¢ $200 6d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 6? BUY No 47¢ $103 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 6? BUY No 92¢ $201 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +11.7% +1.0% 100% 29% -3.1%
≤30d 205 +1.6% -8.0% 88% 18% -8.1%
≤90d 376 +3.3% -6.6% 84% 16% -8.1%
all 376 +3.3% -6.6% 84% 16% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 16% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -15.5% 8% -16.9%
15% -23.7% 6% -24.9%
20% -31.1% 5% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $961.68 · official $961.68 (match) · 1297 history records