trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? | Yes | 7¢ | 7¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Ian Noel Smyth win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? | Yes | 50¢ | 0¢ | $7 | $0 | −$7 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? | Jun 09 | $4 | +$1 | +17% |
| Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? | Jun 05 | $2 | $0 | +13% |
| Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | Jun 03 | $8 | $0 | +5% |
| Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? | May 29 | $21 | $0 | +1% |
| Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | May 29 | $1 | $0 | -3% |
| Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | May 29 | $31 | −$3 | -8% |
| China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? | May 29 | $8 | $0 | +4% |
| Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | May 29 | $12 | $0 | -2% |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | May 29 | $25 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | May 21 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | Apr 24 | $7 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Ian Noel Smyth win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? | Apr 01 | $50 | −$7 | -14% |
| Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? | Mar 17 | $14 | +$2 | +13% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +17.4% | +6.3% | 100% | 100% | +6.3% |
| ≤30d | 10 | +2.4% | -7.3% | 50% | 20% | -10.7% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -5.0% | -14.0% | 46% | 23% | -13.8% |
| all | 13 | -5.0% | -14.0% | 46% | 23% | -13.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.0% | 23% | -13.8% |
| 10% | -22.3% | 0% | -22.1% |
| 15% | -29.8% | 0% | -29.6% |
| 20% | -36.7% | 0% | -36.5% |