Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:20:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FB 0xfb67…b610 crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$547 (+58%) realized +$547 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day36.0pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% +$298
other 32% +$249
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +13.4% +2.6% 42% 33% +42.9%
≤30d 12 +13.4% +2.6% 42% 33% +42.9%
≤90d 12 +13.4% +2.6% 42% 33% +42.9%
all 12 +13.4% +2.6% 42% 33% +42.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.6% 33% +42.9%
10% ← realistic here -7.3% 33% +29.2%
15% -16.2% 33% +16.8%
20% -24.4% 33% +5.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +58% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$163 vs −$38 · ×4.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.03 per $1 lost it wins $3.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$547
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day36.0
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 22 $147 +$453 +307%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 22 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 22 $132 +$13 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$27 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 22 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 22 $87 −$41 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$74 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 22 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $303 +$249 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $600 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $145 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records