Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:27:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb67…4d24 crypto 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6 (-4%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$42
other 40% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-36.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -29.7% -36.4% 50% 38% -37.3%
≤30d 8 -29.7% -36.4% 50% 38% -37.3%
≤90d 8 -29.7% -36.4% 50% 38% -37.3%
all 8 -29.7% -36.4% 50% 38% -37.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.4% 38% -37.3%
10% -42.4% 38% -43.3%
15% -48.0% 38% -48.8%
20% -53.1% 25% -53.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$17 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $44 −$44 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $11 +$4 +38%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $38 +$3 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$13 +53%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$9 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records