Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:38:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb65…eb6c sports 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-4%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%21W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$20
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$6
other 16% −$15
crypto 7% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -2.8% -12.1% 44% 44% -16.8%
≤30d 45 -0.2% -9.7% 47% 42% -13.1%
≤90d 45 -0.2% -9.7% 47% 42% -13.1%
all 45 -0.2% -9.7% 47% 42% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 42% -13.1%
10% -18.3% 38% -21.4%
15% -26.2% 36% -29.0%
20% -33.5% 36% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses21 / 24
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)45 / 49
History coverage18d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+42%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $27 +$3 +12%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $10 +$7 +70%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +13%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 20 $8 $0 -3%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $7 +$5 +70%
Türkiye to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 19 $6 $0 -8%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +58%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 −$5 -92%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $6 $0 -4%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $11 +$7 +62%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2 +$3 +134%
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? Jun 18 $8 +$8 +93%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$5 +105%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 +$6 +123%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 +$1 +119%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$10 +97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$13 +124%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 +$6 +303%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 15 $5 +$7 +146%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$3 -60%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$3 +82%
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $30 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $27 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $17 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 58¢ $10 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $12 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 13h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $5 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $4 28h
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 69¢ $8 28h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes $0 41h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 69¢ $8 43h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $8 2d
Türkiye to score first vs. Paraguay? SELL Yes 54¢ $6 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2d
Türkiye to score first vs. Paraguay? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $25 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $7 2d
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 51¢ $2 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes $0 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 56¢ $6 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.97 · official $4.97 (match) · 82 history records