Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:49:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb61…ade4 world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 307d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate34%13W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$7
other 31% −$10
politics 9% $0
sports 7% +$1
culture 4% $0
weather 4% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.9% -8.7% 40% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 8 +72.8% +56.4% 50% 12% -8.1%
≤90d 17 +34.5% +21.7% 41% 6% -8.3%
all 38 +13.3% +2.5% 34% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.5% 5% -9.7%
10% -7.3% 3% -18.4%
15% -16.3% 3% -26.3%
20% -24.5% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

307d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses13 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage307d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $37 $0 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $41 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $35 +$1 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 27 $32 +$3 +9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $38 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $41 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $13 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $23 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $35 +$2 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $10 −$1 -7%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $45 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $30 +$3 +9%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 30 $34 $0 -1%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Jan 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $21 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $22 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $10 $0 +5%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Elon" or "Musk" during Fighting Oligarchy spe Aug 24 $7 +$1 +12%
Will Nick Delehanty win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 71-72°F on August 21 Aug 23 $40 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $37 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $10 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $31 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $41 6h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 21h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $35 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $40 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $40 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $31 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $5 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $36 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $3 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $1 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $34 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 97¢ $38 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $21 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $2 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $15 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $38 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $37 30d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $37 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $13 30d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $24 30d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $23 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $7 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $12 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $19 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.99 · official $0.00 (match) · 293 history records