Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:03:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FB
0xfb5c…cda7
weather · 120 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$117 +23%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$112 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized+$112
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses97 / 21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)118 / 120
History coverage39d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 118 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$10
14 days+$2
30 days+$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? No 98¢ 93¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +72%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 9? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 10 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $9 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 09 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 7? Jun 08 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 7? Jun 08 $8 +$4 +47%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 6? Jun 07 $11 +$3 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $4 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? Jun 05 $7 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 4? Jun 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2 −$1 -42%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 3? Jun 04 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 3? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 3? Jun 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $8 −$6 -73%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 2? Jun 03 $5 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 1? Jun 02 $3 −$1 -23%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 1? Jun 02 $3 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 1? Jun 02 $7 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 31? Jun 01 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on May 31? Jun 01 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on May 31? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on May 30? May 31 $4 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 30? May 31 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 30? May 31 $3 +$1 +31%
Will Trump post "The Pope" on Truth Social this week? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 91% +$111
politics 8% +$1
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 84¢ $3 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? SELL Yes 45¢ $7 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 78¢ $3 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +6.7% -3.5% 91% 36% -2.7%
≤30d 102 +18.5% +7.2% 84% 31% +16.4%
≤90d 118 +13.8% +3.0% 82% 32% +10.5%
all 118 +13.8% +3.0% 82% 32% +10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.0% 32% +10.5%
10% -6.9% 14% -0.0%
15% -15.9% 7% -9.7%
20% -24.1% 5% -18.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.16 · official $3.16 (match) · 510 history records