Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:35:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb5a…0994 sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$37 (-6%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$37
other 8% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -24.9% -32.0% 50% 39% -17.1%
≤30d 18 -24.9% -32.0% 50% 39% -17.1%
≤90d 18 -24.9% -32.0% 50% 39% -17.1%
all 18 -24.9% -32.0% 50% 39% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.0% 39% -17.1%
10% -38.5% 33% -25.0%
15% -44.5% 28% -32.2%
20% -49.9% 22% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -56% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$15 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage3d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 30 $89 +$10 +11%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 30 $81 +$7 +8%
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 30 $76 +$6 +8%
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 30 $20 −$11 -56%
Netherlands vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 30 $20 −$15 -74%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $83 +$19 +23%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $28 +$15 +52%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $20 +$9 +43%
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $5 +$5 +97%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $18 −$17 -95%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $16 +$10 +60%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $10 −$8 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $98 42m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 90¢ $89 51m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $88 53m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 92¢ $81 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $81 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 87¢ $71 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 27¢ $9 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 14¢ $1 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 17¢ $5 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $20 2h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $5 2h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $20 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $101 5h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $83 7h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 48¢ $10 7h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 9h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 14¢ $5 9h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $23 9h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $29 9h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 68¢ $5 9h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 69¢ $15 9h
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $31 10h
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $20 10h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 30h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over $1 30h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $3 32h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $15 32h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 32h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records