Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:44:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
FB 0xfb57…0a46 world 70 markets active 7h ago coverage 400d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$20,156 (+5%) realized +$17,729 · open +$2,427
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate78%52W / 15L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$5,468per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$61,212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,536
7 days+$6,167
14 days+$6,130
30 days+$8,136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$3,828
finance 29% +$5,533
economics 17% +$8,457
tech 5% +$1,725
other 2% +$279
crypto 0% +$274
politics 0% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +22.7% +11.0% 95% 35% -2.9%
≤30d 31 +16.3% +5.2% 81% 26% -5.5%
≤90d 44 +10.3% -0.2% 75% 20% -6.0%
all 67 +13.1% +2.4% 78% 30% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.4% 30% -4.6%
10% ← realistic here -7.4% 19% -13.7%
15% -16.4% 10% -22.1%
20% -24.6% 10% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$5,088) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$392 vs −$186 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.3 per $1 lost it wins $7.3
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

400d coverage
Net worth$61,212
Realized+$17,729
Unrealized+$2,427
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses52 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)67 / 70
History coverage400d
Avg bet$5,468
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 88¢ $51,235 $53,062 +$1,827 (+4%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 88¢ $6,736 $7,114 +$378 (+6%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? No 75¢ 96¢ $813 $1,036 +$223 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 16 $519 +$1,208 +233%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 15 $15,132 +$3,124 +21%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 15 $1,553 +$204 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 14 $522 +$352 +67%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 14 $3,616 +$142 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $857 +$71 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $1,001 +$88 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $1,796 +$58 +3%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 14 $1,323 +$113 +9%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $5,539 +$86 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $2,876 +$24 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $104 +$6 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $940 +$187 +20%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $4,564 +$161 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $7,273 +$560 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $5,186 +$826 +16%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $626 +$179 +29%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $298 +$12 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $107 +$3 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $30,641 −$1,237 -4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 04 $2,016 −$37 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 02 $3,771 −$84 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 02 $4,239 −$243 -6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 01 $252 $0 -0%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,072 +$128 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $9,380 +$202 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? May 28 $2,885 +$77 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 28 $2,000 −$150 -8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 23 $1,500 +$840 +56%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 21 $48,824 +$955 +2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 21 $20,200 +$282 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 01 $20,906 +$365 +2%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Apr 08 $3,040 +$960 +32%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 01 $23,111 +$695 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 01 $10,863 +$885 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Apr 01 $5,088 −$61 -1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 24 $470 −$470 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 24 $2,620 −$251 -10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 21 $12,805 −$29 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March? Mar 21 $267 −$10 -4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 21 $9,382 +$252 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 21 $3,034 +$118 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Mar 21 $5,053 +$251 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Mar 21 $4,583 +$350 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 18 $11,623 +$232 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 18 $7,665 +$460 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Mar 01 $415 +$85 +20%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Mar 01 $377 +$194 +52%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 19 $415 −$25 -6%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 19 $465 +$35 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1,811 6h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL No 96¢ $1,726 6h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $687 35h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $800 35h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $4 35h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $36 35h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $1,600 35h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $1,200 35h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $2,400 35h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $2,393 35h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $1,509 35h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $7,543 35h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 68¢ $18,256 35h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $172 47h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $1,046 47h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $1 47h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $540 47h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,757 47h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $2,467 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? SELL No 92¢ $875 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? SELL No 96¢ $651 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $927 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $183 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $10 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $16 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $410 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $179 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $2,086 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $45 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $1,089 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61,211.64 · official $61,211.64 (match) · 471 history records