Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:03:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FB 0xfb57…952f crypto 103 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (154 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$50 (+1%) realized +$102 · open −$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate79%80W / 21L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day154.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$258now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$71
other 3% −$11
economics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (154 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 -6.4% -15.3% 79% 13% -7.7%
≤30d 101 -6.4% -15.3% 79% 13% -7.7%
≤90d 101 -6.4% -15.3% 79% 13% -7.7%
all 101 -6.4% -15.3% 79% 13% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover154.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 13% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 7% -16.5%
15% -30.8% 5% -24.6%
20% -37.6% 4% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$258
Realized+$102
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses80 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)101 / 103
History coverage2d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day154.1
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Down 89¢ 74¢ $300 $249 −$51 (-17%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 24 $276 +$20 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 24 $174 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 24 $209 +$6 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 24 $261 +$20 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 24 $183 +$3 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 24 $226 +$13 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $326 −$2 -1%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$5 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 24 $235 +$5 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$3 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 24 $201 +$11 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 24 $176 +$11 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $205 +$3 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 24 $139 +$3 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $200 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 24 $176 +$12 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 24 $17 +$8 +47%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $180 +$4 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 24 $170 +$7 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 24 $120 +$5 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $142 +$27 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 24 $80 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 24 $135 +$2 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $135 +$3 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 24 $110 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 24 $125 +$6 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 -5%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $121 +$8 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $3 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $6 +$1 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 24 $6 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $6 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $6 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 24 $6 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$3 -49%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 24 $9 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 24 $9 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 24 $6 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 24 $9 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $3 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $101 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $74 9m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 9m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 19m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 19m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 19m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 19m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 20m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 21m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $83 24m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 24m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 28m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 28m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 28m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 35m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $223 35m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 37m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 37m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 37m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $31 43m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $258.49 · official $102.93 · 472 history records