Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:01:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb56…c1bc sports 241 markets active 1h ago coverage 543d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$874 (-2%) realized −$874 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate19%45W / 196L
Whale WR6%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$390est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$233
14 days−$469
30 days−$530
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$592
world 19% −$120
other 18% −$225
politics 9% −$208
tech 3% −$58
crypto 2% +$66
finance 1% −$31
economics 1% −$6
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -6.0% -15.0% 12% 0% -12.7%
≤30d 107 -6.5% -15.4% 11% 2% -12.2%
≤90d 193 -8.0% -16.7% 8% 1% -12.5%
all 241 -5.7% -14.7% 19% 5% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 5% -11.6%
10% -22.9% 2% -20.1%
15% -30.3% 0% -27.8%
20% -37.2% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 6% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

543d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$874
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses45 / 196
Whale WR (big bets)6%
Est. fees paid−$390
Open positions0
Markets (closed)241 / 241
History coverage543d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 241 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $50 −$2 -3%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $348 −$9 -3%
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 20 $157 −$5 -3%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 20 $66 −$2 -3%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $121 $0 +0%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? Jun 19 $101 −$3 -3%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $352 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $58 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $512 −$11 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $164 −$2 -1%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 19 $109 −$107 -98%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 18 $118 −$18 -15%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 18 $226 −$23 -10%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 18 $168 −$3 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $244 −$6 -2%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $214 −$6 -3%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $88 −$3 -4%
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? Jun 18 $20 −$1 -4%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 17 $164 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 17 $285 −$2 -1%
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 17 $168 −$1 -1%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 17 $292 +$1 +0%
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $54 $0 -1%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 16 $42 −$5 -12%
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? Jun 16 $40 −$7 -18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $98 −$2 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $76 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $200 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $984 +$3 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $207 +$4 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 15 $176 $0 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 15 $61 $0 -0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $150 −$4 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $192 $0 -0%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 14 $34 −$17 -49%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $106 −$6 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 14 $126 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 14 $80 −$4 -5%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $68 −$6 -8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $542 −$3 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $328 −$10 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $517 −$56 -11%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 13 $48 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 13 $186 −$4 -2%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Jun 13 $134 −$6 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $1 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $47 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $50 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $167 2h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $168 2h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $102 16h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $106 16h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $76 21h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $38 21h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $38 21h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $157 23h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 32¢ $64 23h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 33¢ $66 24h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $32 28h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 60¢ $27 28h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 60¢ $94 28h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 60¢ $121 28h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $32 29h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? SELL No 73¢ $95 46h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? SELL No 74¢ $4 47h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? BUY No 74¢ $37 47h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? BUY No 74¢ $37 47h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? BUY No 74¢ $27 47h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $108 47h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $108 47h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $0 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 39¢ $52 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 39¢ $2 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 39¢ $1 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 39¢ $22 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1072 history records