Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:11:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FB 0xfb54…9e38 sports 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,139 (+10%) realized +$1,139 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%18W / 18L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$270per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$270now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$124
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$2,161
other 18% −$1,029
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -13.9% -22.1% 46% 46% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -13.9% -22.1% 46% 46% -9.7%
≤90d 15 -25.4% -32.5% 40% 40% -38.2%
all 36 -4.0% -13.2% 50% 50% +0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 50% +0.5%
10% -21.5% 50% -9.1%
15% -29.1% 42% -17.9%
20% -36.0% 42% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$244 vs −$181 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$270
Realized+$1,139
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses18 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions5
Markets (closed)36 / 41
History coverage240d
Avg bet$270
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Over 48¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? No 16¢ 17¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $76 −$75 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 +$74 +73%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $51 +$33 +65%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$142 +140%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $56 +$52 +93%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $58 +$52 +90%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $202 +$120 +59%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff May 03 $112 −$109 -98%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $378 −$372 -98%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $360 +$640 +178%
UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 01 $100 +$117 +117%
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 01 $241 +$138 +57%
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Mar 01 $800 +$185 +23%
Rams vs. Seahawks Feb 01 $200 +$151 +75%
UFC 324: Namajunas vs. Silva (Women's Flyweight, Prelims) Jan 25 $100 +$35 +35%
UFC 324: Allen vs. Silva (Featherweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $100 +$52 +52%
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $200 +$105 +53%
Patriots vs. Broncos Jan 25 $100 −$2 -2%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $202 −$202 -100%
UFC 324: Krylov vs. Bukauskas (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) Jan 24 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC 324: Lewis vs. Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jan 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 09 $577 −$577 -100%
Jaguars vs. Colts Dec 28 $141 −$141 -100%
Texans vs. Chargers Dec 28 $322 +$348 +108%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5) Dec 27 $2,683 +$917 +34%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 13 $567 −$567 -100%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 01 $500 −$500 -100%
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Nov 01 $861 −$116 -13%
Blue Jays vs. Dodgers Oct 31 $510 +$490 +96%
Blue Jays vs. Dodgers Oct 29 $500 +$741 +148%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 16¢ $21 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 20h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $76 43h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $51 46h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $101 46h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 39¢ $51 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 51¢ $56 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $58 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $322 5d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 5d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $102 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $202 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff BUY Natus Vincere 23¢ $112 52d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 31¢ $95 54d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 51¢ $155 54d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 63¢ $127 54d
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Charles Oliveira 36¢ $360 109d
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) BUY Volkanovski 50¢ $200 144d
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) SELL Volkanovski 59¢ $295 144d
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) SELL Volkanovski 58¢ $290 144d
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Saint Denis 53¢ $106 144d
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Saint Denis 70¢ $13 144d
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Saint Denis 70¢ $47 144d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $270.29 · official $270.29 (match) · 105 history records