Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:38:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FB
0xfb51…742d
sports · 154 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$128,517 -20%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$166,912 · open +$30,797
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$241,056
Realized−$166,912
Unrealized+$30,797
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses87 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$1,123
Open positions31
Markets (closed)178 / 154
History coverage45d
Avg bet$4,109
Trades / day73.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 31 History 178 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$205,880
7 days−$203,712
14 days−$184,580
30 days−$165,652
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 54¢ 75¢ $42,705 $59,548 +$16,843 (+39%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 62¢ 84¢ $29,279 $40,189 +$10,910 (+37%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 87¢ 89¢ $27,477 $28,209 +$732 (+3%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 82¢ 88¢ $24,845 $26,422 +$1,577 (+6%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 83¢ 97¢ $17,665 $20,635 +$2,970 (+17%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 75¢ 90¢ $11,727 $14,129 +$2,402 (+20%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 88¢ 85¢ $13,164 $12,795 −$369 (-3%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 32¢ 26¢ $11,774 $9,608 −$2,166 (-18%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 60¢ 62¢ $8,053 $8,285 +$232 (+3%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 82¢ 72¢ $7,970 $6,967 −$1,002 (-13%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 78¢ 80¢ $3,610 $3,703 +$93 (+3%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $3,014 $3,031 +$17 (+1%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 16¢ 14¢ $2,077 $1,779 −$298 (-14%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $1,231 $1,297 +$66 (+5%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,200 $900 −$300 (-25%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 65¢ 36¢ $1,375 $746 −$629 (-46%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $550 $575 +$25 (+5%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 23¢ 18¢ $683 $519 −$163 (-24%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 98¢ 99¢ $344 $348 +$4 (+1%)
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 12, 2026? No 84¢ 94¢ $252 $283 +$31 (+12%)
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $159 $194 +$35 (+22%)
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? Yes 65¢ 79¢ $131 $159 +$28 (+22%)
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $238 $145 −$93 (-39%)
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $140 $130 −$10 (-7%)
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $122 $118 −$5 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-22? Jun 12 $476 −$476 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Jun 12 $691 −$691 -100%
Bucharest Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Titouan Droguet Jun 12 $449 −$449 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Casper Ruud Jun 12 $1,446 −$1,446 -100%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Luca Van Assche vs Tallon Griekspoor Jun 12 $789 −$789 -100%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-03-21? Jun 12 $772 −$772 -100%
ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Jun 12 $164 −$175 -107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 5PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$8 -278%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31? Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 12 $90,448 −$86,045 -95%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-04-04? Jun 12 $1,243 −$1,243 -100%
Miami Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Korda Jun 12 $7,097 −$7,097 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-04? Jun 12 $340 −$340 -100%
Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times during the America Business Forum on No Jun 12 $138 −$125 -91%
Bucharest Open: Mariano Navone vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 12 $288 −$288 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Terence Atmane vs Ethan Quinn Jun 12 $1,695 −$1,695 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Daniel Altmaier vs Tomas Machac Jun 12 $256 −$256 -100%
Will Amazon dip to $192 in February? Jun 12 $568 −$568 -100%
Madrid Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Elena Rybakina Jun 12 $504 −$504 -100%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Corentin Moutet vs Marco Trungelliti Jun 12 $113 −$113 -100%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Leylah Fernandez vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 12 $10,687 −$10,687 -100%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-04-15? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 9, 2026 Jun 12 $1,355 −$536 -40%
Mexican Open: Alexander Zverev vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 12 $810 −$810 -100%
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2026-01-28? Jun 12 $126 −$126 -100%
Miami Open: Valentin Royer vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Jun 12 $75 −$75 -100%
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Etcheverry (+1.5) Jun 12 $56 −$56 -100%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Aleksandar Vukic vs Taha Baadi Jun 12 $4,900 −$4,900 -100%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (February 8) Jun 12 $345 −$345 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-03-22? Jun 12 $587 −$3,541 -603%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Tomas Etcheverry vs Alex Bolt Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Fiona Ferro vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Arthur Rinderknech win the 2025 ATP Shanghai Masters Men’s Single Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in th Jun 12 $1,094 −$1,094 -100%
San Luis Potosi: Alan Magadan vs Matias Soto Jun 12 $383 −$383 -100%
Will MrBeast's latest video get between 39 and 41 million views on wee Jun 12 $1,026 −$997 -97%
Will Iván Arias win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Copa Colsanitas: Varvara Lepchenko vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 12 $943 −$943 -100%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-02-21? Jun 12 $870 −$870 -100%
Bucharest Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Dino Prizmic Jun 12 $1,658 −$1,658 -100%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-04-25? Jun 12 $4,435 −$4,435 -100%
Copa Colsanitas: Camila Osorio vs Jazmin Ortenzi Jun 12 $2,417 −$2,417 -100%
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 12 $5,776 −$5,971 -103%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? Jun 12 $49,474 −$49,474 -100%
Will Trump say "Ethiopia" during the State of the Union address? Jun 12 $21 −$19 -92%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during October press conference? Jun 12 $234 −$234 -100%
Miami Open: Darja Vidmanova vs Elsa Jacquemot Jun 12 $1,460 −$1,575 -108%
Madrid Open: Arthur Fils vs Ignacio Buse Jun 12 $1,280 −$1,280 -100%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Luca Van Assche Jun 12 $537 −$537 -100%
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-03-20? Jun 12 $1,419 −$1,419 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 47% +$51,928
politics 17% −$4,742
other 16% +$726
sports 15% +$10,168
finance 5% +$8,466
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1,000 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1,562 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $2,420 1h
Will Lamine Yamal be in Spain's Starting 11? BUY No 88¢ $73 1h
Will Lamine Yamal be in Spain's Starting 11? BUY No 88¢ $29 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $1,900 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 96¢ $9,393 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 95¢ $100 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 96¢ $57 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 87¢ $2,524 3h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 87¢ $1,794 3h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 87¢ $7 3h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 87¢ $21 3h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 87¢ $3 4h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 87¢ $2,680 4h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 87¢ $17 4h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 87¢ $3 4h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 87¢ $177 4h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 87¢ $116 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 86¢ $95 7h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 87¢ $4 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 86¢ $1 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 86¢ $0 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 86¢ $325 7h
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY No 84¢ $5 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 86¢ $435 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 86¢ $863 8h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 87¢ $873 8h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 88¢ $648 8h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 88¢ $233 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -69.8% -72.7% 21% 18% -69.1%
≤30d 130 -19.5% -27.2% 42% 32% -38.3%
≤90d 178 -5.6% -14.6% 49% 33% -34.2%
all 178 -5.6% -14.6% 49% 33% -34.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover73.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 33% -34.2%
10% -22.8% 21% -40.5%
15% ← realistic here -30.2% 14% -46.2%
20% -37.1% 10% -51.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $241,055.55 · official $241,055.56 (match) · 3500 history records