Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:40:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FB 0xfb4f…c738 sports 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$136 (-5%) realized −$136 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate70%42W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$21
14 days−$21
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% $0
crypto 42% −$146
other 10% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +14.5% +3.6% 71% 57% -15.3%
≤30d 7 +14.5% +3.6% 71% 57% -15.3%
≤90d 14 +5.7% -4.4% 71% 43% -12.2%
all 60 -3.1% -12.3% 70% 48% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 48% -15.3%
10% -20.7% 27% -23.4%
15% -28.4% 18% -30.8%
20% -35.4% 7% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$30 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$136
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses42 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)60 / 62
History coverage104d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 60 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $170 −$81 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$28 +107%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? AND Exact Score: Uruguay 1 Jun 27 $43 +$11 +25%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $44 −$1 -2%
Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 May 03 $48 +$14 +29%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres May 03 $45 +$3 +7%
Will CA Talleres win on 2026-03-06? May 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET May 02 $42 +$1 +2%
Will CA Independiente win on 2026-03-07? May 02 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 02 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $58 +$3 +5%
Lakers vs. Magic Mar 22 $30 +$4 +14%
Heat vs. Rockets Mar 22 $30 −$8 -25%
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5) Mar 22 $18 +$2 +14%
Blues vs. Canucks Mar 22 $30 +$2 +6%
Warriors vs. Hawks Mar 22 $41 −$18 -43%
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) Mar 22 $30 −$18 -60%
Cavaliers vs. Pelicans Mar 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-21.5) Mar 21 $29 +$14 +47%
Spread: Thunder (-24.5) Mar 21 $30 +$6 +20%
Spread: Kings (-1.5) Mar 21 $30 +$5 +16%
Everton FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5 Mar 21 $50 +$7 +15%
Spread: Brighton & Hove Albion FC (-1.5) Mar 21 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $20 +$2 +8%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5 Mar 21 $30 −$3 -8%
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 4.5 Mar 21 $50 +$15 +30%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $30 +$13 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 21 $39 +$13 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 21 $40 −$38 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 21 $69 −$69 -100%
Fagiano Okayama vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 2.5 Mar 21 $68 +$8 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 21 $23 +$36 +153%
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 3.5 Mar 21 $50 −$27 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Mar 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Mar 21 $40 +$26 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 21 $30 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 20 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 20 $30 +$16 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 20 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Mar 20 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Mar 20 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Mar 20 $79 +$10 +13%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Mar 20 $70 +$9 +12%
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 4.5 Mar 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $54 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 2h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) AND New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 AND Egypt vs BUY 45¢ $30 2h
Spread: Belgium (-4.5) AND New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 6.5 AND Exact BUY 71¢ $53 4h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? AND Exact Score: Uruguay 1 SELL 99¢ $54 4h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? AND Exact Score: Uruguay 1 BUY 78¢ $43 5h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? SELL No 85¢ $43 5h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? BUY No 86¢ $44 5h
Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $62 55d
Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 77¢ $48 55d
Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres SELL Chicago White Sox 100¢ $48 55d
Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres BUY Chicago White Sox 93¢ $45 55d
Will CA Talleres win on 2026-03-06? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $43 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 158 history records