Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:35:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FB 0xfb4b…5bed sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$31 (+17%) realized +$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$76
crypto 23% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +21.5% +9.9% 67% 67% +31.4%
≤30d 6 +21.5% +9.9% 67% 67% +31.4%
≤90d 6 +21.5% +9.9% 67% 67% +31.4%
all 6 +21.5% +9.9% 67% 67% +31.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.9% 67% +31.4%
10% -0.6% 67% +18.8%
15% -10.2% 67% +7.4%
20% -19.0% 50% -3.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$7 · ×2.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.9 per $1 lost it wins $5.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage4d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $51 +$36 +71%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $35 +$13 +36%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +91%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$10 -26%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$3 -30%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France to score first vs. Senegal? SELL Yes 97¢ $87 1h
France to score first vs. Senegal? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $48 24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $35 24h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 97¢ $39 27h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 47h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 47h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $29 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $30 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $32 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records