Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:47:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FB 0xfb48…6ad1 other 1230 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,587 (-1%) realized −$1,362 · open −$225
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate96%1179W / 46L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day35.8pace
Fees−$200est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$727now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days−$2,586
14 days−$2,243
30 days−$1,564
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$2,256
sports 41% −$164
politics 3% −$2,319
world 3% +$236
weather 2% −$6
crypto 0% +$51
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 +0.8% -8.8% 97% 9% -16.0%
≤30d 349 +1.3% -8.3% 96% 14% -11.0%
≤90d 1225 +9.7% -0.7% 96% 8% -10.3%
all 1225 +9.7% -0.7% 96% 8% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.7% 8% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -10.2% 3% -18.9%
15% -18.9% 2% -26.7%
20% -26.8% 1% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$229 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$727
Realized−$1,362
Unrealized−$225
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses1179 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$200
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1225 / 1230
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$150
Trades / day35.8
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1225 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Luis Díaz: 1+ assists Yes 99¢ 95¢ $445 $427 −$18 (-4%)
Jhon Arias: 1+ shots Yes 99¢ 50¢ $364 $184 −$180 (-49%)
Cecilio Waterman: 1+ shots Yes 99¢ 87¢ $86 $75 −$10 (-12%)
Daniel Muñoz: 1+ shots Yes 99¢ 82¢ $35 $29 −$6 (-17%)
Luis Díaz: 1+ shots Yes 99¢ 50¢ $22 $11 −$11 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pedro Neto: 1+ shots Jun 18 $146 +$6 +4%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $609 +$13 +2%
Reece James: 1+ shots Jun 18 $22 $0 +2%
Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots Jun 18 $35 $0 +1%
Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots Jun 18 $35 $0 +1%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 17 $397 +$3 +1%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $232 +$2 +1%
Martin Baturina: 1+ goals Jun 17 $46 $0 +1%
Cédric Bakambu: 1+ shots Jun 17 $172 +$2 +1%
Pedro Neto: 3+ shots Jun 17 $17 $0 +1%
IR Tanger to score first vs. Kawkab AC? Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
DR Congo to score first vs. Portugal? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $115 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $140 +$1 +0%
Pedro Neto: 1+ assists Jun 17 $468 +$4 +1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Team to Take First Corner Jun 17 $254 +$2 +1%
Astakhova vs. Giovannini: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +104%
Mousa Ta'mari: 1+ shots Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Ali Olwan: 1+ shots Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Stefan Posch: 1+ shots Jun 17 $153 +$2 +1%
Stefan Posch: 2+ shots Jun 17 $153 +$2 +1%
Saša Kalajdžić: 1+ shots Jun 17 $153 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $453 +$6 +1%
Thiago Almada: 1+ shots Jun 17 $215 +$2 +1%
Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots Jun 17 $32 +$1 +2%
Amine Gouiri: 2+ assists Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 17 $23 $0 +0%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $577 +$1 +0%
Kristian Thorstvedt: 1+ shots Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots Jun 17 $8 +$1 +14%
Exact Score: Fortaleza EC 0 - 3 América FC? Jun 17 $110 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $76 +$1 +1%
Sadio Mané: 1+ shots Jun 16 $62 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $37 $0 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $789 +$2 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5) Jun 16 $843 +$8 +1%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $23 +$1 +4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $771 +$95 +12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $552 −$552 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $459 −$459 -100%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $687 +$31 +4%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,825 −$2,443 -86%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $476 +$24 +5%
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ shots Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $864 +$9 +1%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $344 $0 +0%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $998 +$1 +0%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $660 +$6 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Luis Díaz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 99¢ $95 1h
Luis Díaz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 97¢ $20 1h
Luis Díaz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 99¢ $330 1h
Daniel Muñoz: 1+ shots BUY Yes 99¢ $35 1h
Luis Díaz: 1+ shots BUY Yes 99¢ $22 1h
Jhon Arias: 1+ shots BUY Yes 99¢ $330 1h
Jhon Arias: 1+ shots BUY Yes 99¢ $35 1h
Pedro Neto: 1+ shots SELL No 100¢ $152 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $622 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $383 3h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 3h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $38 3h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $186 3h
Pedro Neto: 1+ shots BUY No 53¢ $3 4h
Cecilio Waterman: 1+ shots BUY Yes 99¢ $86 4h
Pedro Neto: 1+ shots BUY No 53¢ $3 5h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $190 5h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $164 6h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $33 6h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $5 6h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $5 6h
Reece James: 1+ shots BUY Yes 98¢ $22 6h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $0 6h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $16 6h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $2 6h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $2 6h
Martin Baturina: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $41 7h
Martin Baturina: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $5 7h
Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots BUY Yes 99¢ $35 7h
Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots BUY Yes 99¢ $35 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $726.83 · official $726.87 (match) · 3500 history records