Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:17:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb45…7104 other 184 markets active 4h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$24 (+1%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate23%41W / 135L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day17.8pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$2
14 days−$15
30 days+$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-36.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -41.9% -47.4% 26% 26% -9.3%
≤30d 56 -32.5% -38.9% 32% 30% +3.7%
≤90d 176 -29.3% -36.0% 23% 20% -5.4%
all 176 -29.3% -36.0% 23% 20% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.0% 20% -5.4%
10% -42.2% 15% -14.4%
15% -47.7% 14% -22.7%
20% -52.9% 12% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$8 · ×3.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses41 / 135
Open positions8
Markets (closed)176 / 184
History coverage85d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 85¢ 64¢ $11 $9 −$3 (-25%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 90¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$1 (+11%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 79¢ 78¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 85¢ 81¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 17¢ 36¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+115%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+25%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 112 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $32 +$16 +49%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $6 −$3 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $9 −$6 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $57 −$7 -13%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $21 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $19 +$11 +58%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $11 −$6 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $85 +$30 +35%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $11 −$10 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -35%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $21 −$19 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $5 +$3 +61%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 11 $7 +$7 +92%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $23 −$13 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $5 +$1 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $20 +$41 +203%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $5 −$4 -89%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 28 $30 −$9 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $13 −$11 -81%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $25 +$6 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $31 +$67 +214%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $123 −$64 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 26 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 26 $15 −$5 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 26 $11 +$13 +114%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 24 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $147 +$82 +56%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $39 −$18 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $12 −$2 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $86 −$29 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $9 +$1 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $3 −$2 -64%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $3 −$3 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $26 −$2 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $5 −$2 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 9h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 11h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $6 12h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $6 28h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 29h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 34h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 35h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 35h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 35h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $6 35h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 35h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 35h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $3 35h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 35h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 36h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $6 36h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $10 36h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 36h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 36h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 36h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $6 36h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 36h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 36h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 36h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $3 40h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.21 · official $39.22 (match) · 1572 history records