Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:22:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb41…1fff other 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 504d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16,248 (-28%) realized −$15,263 · open −$985
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate36%33W / 59L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$603per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$12,205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$106
14 days+$170
30 days+$170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 32% −$17,201
other 32% −$1,094
world 17% +$2,433
sports 11% −$1,051
economics 3% +$816
crypto 3% +$368
politics 2% −$780
tech 0% +$223
weather 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -21.4% -28.9% 50% 50% +37.1%
≤30d 3 +25.7% +13.7% 67% 67% +49.7%
≤90d 9 -58.1% -62.1% 22% 22% -86.0%
all 92 -3.6% -12.8% 36% 33% -44.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 33% -44.1%
10% -21.1% 28% -49.5%
15% -28.8% 26% -54.3%
20% -35.7% 23% -58.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -84% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +54% → late -61% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$315 vs −$443 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

504d coverage
Net worth$12,205
Realized−$15,263
Unrealized−$985
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses33 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions4
Markets (closed)92 / 97
History coverage504d
Avg bet$603
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $4,500 $5,475 +$975 (+22%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5,100 $4,350 −$750 (-15%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3,500 $2,250 −$1,250 (-36%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals No 45¢ 65¢ $90 $130 +$40 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $199 +$114 +57%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -97%
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros Jun 07 $53 +$63 +120%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $158 −$155 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Apr 24 $1,169 −$605 -52%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Apr 23 $377 −$376 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Apr 23 $759 −$745 -98%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 23 $220 −$218 -99%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 22 $426 −$417 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $450 −$450 -100%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025? Feb 08 $35 +$10 +30%
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? Feb 08 $34 +$86 +258%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-19? Feb 08 $104 +$430 +412%
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? Oct 14 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 14 $71 +$4 +6%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by December 31? Oct 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands in 2025? Oct 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? Oct 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? Oct 13 $185 −$185 -100%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13? Oct 13 $312 +$68 +22%
Israel strikes Gaza by October 17? Oct 12 $232 −$232 -100%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31? Oct 12 $679 −$648 -95%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 15? Oct 12 $547 −$348 -64%
Will no leader be out in 2025? Oct 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 11 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on November 12 Oct 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on Novembe Oct 11 $222 −$222 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 11 $155 −$155 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Oct 11 $2 −$2 -100%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union"? Oct 10 $87 −$87 -100%
Maduro out in 2025? Oct 10 $180 −$180 -100%
Will the federal government be shut down for 10–29 days in 2025? Oct 10 $572 −$572 -100%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Oct 10 $161 −$161 -100%
Israel strikes Iran before 2026? Oct 10 $60 −$60 -100%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 10 $14,871 −$14,871 -100%
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 31? Oct 10 $6,690 +$3,844 +58%
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 20 Oct 10 $878 −$878 -100%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 09 $2,495 −$752 -30%
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025? Oct 09 $670 −$670 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-19? Oct 08 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on October 8? Oct 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 08 $700 −$700 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Oct 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Oct 07 $450 −$450 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-04? Oct 04 $405 −$405 -100%
Will Chelsea vs. Liverpool end in a draw? Oct 04 $116 −$116 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? Oct 03 $757 −$52 -7%
Will Newcastle vs. Arsenal end in a draw? Sep 28 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-27? Sep 27 $63 −$63 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 45¢ $91 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end i BUY 12¢ $103 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $313 2d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $197 10d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 10d
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 43¢ $53 31d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 31¢ $158 45d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 26¢ $260 54d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 26¢ $72 54d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 24¢ $26 54d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 28¢ $33 54d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 26¢ $58 54d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 26¢ $0 54d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 25¢ $9 54d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner SELL Aurora 74¢ $125 54d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner SELL Aurora 70¢ $248 54d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner SELL Aurora 67¢ $1 54d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner SELL Aurora 67¢ $60 54d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner SELL Aurora 67¢ $12 54d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner SELL Aurora 68¢ $175 54d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner SELL Aurora 89¢ $53 54d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner BUY Aurora 59¢ $373 54d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner BUY Aurora 59¢ $151 54d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner BUY Aurora 52¢ $9 54d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner BUY Aurora 52¢ $12 54d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner BUY Aurora 52¢ $1 54d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner BUY Aurora 52¢ $11 54d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 39¢ $156 54d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 4¢ $2 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,205.00 · official $12,205.00 (match) · 583 history records