Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:02:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FB
0xfb40…68b6
crypto · 414 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$446 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$446 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized−$446
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses276 / 137
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$220
Open positions1
Markets (closed)413 / 414
History coverage15d
Avg bet$315
Trades / day58.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 413 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$456
7 days−$2,204
14 days−$566
30 days−$446
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Centurion 2: Khololwam Montsi vs Alexander Donski Khololwam Montsi 75¢ 0¢ $460 $0 −$460 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Milwaukee Brewers 19¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$13 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$9 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $60 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$8 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $64 −$53 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $111 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$8 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -95%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 13 $30 −$28 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $153 +$38 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$8 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$9 +18%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $41 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $61 +$19 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $112 +$22 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $56 +$11 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $112 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $116 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $56 +$26 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $56 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $122 +$10 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 75% −$1,783
sports 25% +$1,337
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 3m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 56¢ $6 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $7 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $15 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $14 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $6 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $13 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $9 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $51 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 277 -5.9% -14.9% 66% 40% -11.3%
≤30d 413 -1.0% -10.4% 67% 44% -9.6%
≤90d 413 -1.0% -10.4% 67% 44% -9.6%
all 413 -1.0% -10.4% 67% 44% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover58.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 44% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 26% -18.2%
15% -26.8% 18% -26.1%
20% -34.0% 13% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.55 · official $5.55 (match) · 1144 history records