Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:59:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FB 0xfb3b…32ad crypto 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 488d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$25 (+2%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate95%81W / 4L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% +$27
other 12% −$4
tech 12% +$2
economics 2% +$2
sports 0% $0
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 5 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -8.9%
all 85 -1.8% -11.1% 95% 5% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 5% -7.9%
10% -19.6% 0% -16.7%
15% -27.4% 0% -24.7%
20% -34.5% 0% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.0 per $1 lost it wins $4.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

488d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses81 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 86
History coverage488d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $93 $93 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $92 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 01 $92 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets in May 2026? May 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 08 $67 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 23 $90 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 17 $74 +$16 +22%
Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 19 $74 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 5-11? Jan 22 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 600-639 tweets in January 2026? Jan 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the third-best AI model at the end of December 2025? Jan 06 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025 Jan 06 $15 $0 +0%
BNB all time high by December 31? Jan 06 $21 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 06 $21 +$1 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Dec 06 $12 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Dec 06 $12 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 06 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Google reach $380 in November? Dec 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025 Dec 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025? Nov 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Novemb Nov 16 $17 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Nov 06 $15 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on October 31? Nov 06 $17 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 06 $16 +$2 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 06 $19 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 September 29-October 5? Oct 18 $12 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.35 in September? Oct 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Oct 05 $16 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on Oct 05 $16 +$1 +6%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in September? Oct 05 $19 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 September 8–14? Sep 26 $16 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $215 in September? Sep 10 $7 +$1 +16%
Will XRP reach $2.90 in September? Sep 10 $11 +$2 +14%
Solana reach 240 September 1–7? Sep 10 $18 +$1 +8%
Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August? Sep 04 $8 $0 +4%
Will Solana reach $290 in August? Sep 04 $12 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August? Sep 04 $19 +$1 +3%
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? Aug 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2700 on July 11 at 5PM ET? Aug 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 08 $8 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $80 in July? Aug 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.06 in July? Aug 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.0 in July? Aug 08 $13 $0 +1%
Pump.fun airdrop in Q3 2025? Jul 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9? Jul 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet 500 or more times June 6–13? Jul 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $390b and $400b on June 30? Jul 11 $5 $0 +1%
Rabby airdrop in Q2 2025? Jul 11 $6 $0 +3%
Solana all time high by June 30? Jul 11 $7 $0 +1%
XRP all time high by June 30? Jul 11 $8 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $93 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $92 18d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 99¢ $92 44d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $67 59d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 59d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? BUY No 99¢ $90 96d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $74 122d
Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $74 150d
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 5-11? BUY No 100¢ $24 166d
Will Elon Musk post 600-639 tweets in January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 166d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025 BUY No 100¢ $15 187d
Will Z.ai have the third-best AI model at the end of December 2025? BUY No 99¢ $15 197d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $15 197d
BNB all time high by December 31? BUY No 98¢ $21 197d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 97¢ $21 197d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025 BUY No 100¢ $17 217d
Will Google reach $380 in November? BUY No 100¢ $16 217d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $12 227d
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $12 227d
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Novemb BUY No 98¢ $17 227d
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 96¢ $13 227d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $16 227d
Will xAI have the top AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $17 246d
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 September 29-October 5? BUY No 99¢ $12 258d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? BUY No 99¢ $15 258d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? BUY No 99¢ $19 258d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 90¢ $16 258d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.35 in September? BUY No 100¢ $15 268d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 September 8–14? BUY No 99¢ $16 283d
Will Apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 94¢ $16 283d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.95 · official $92.95 (match) · 175 history records