Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:04:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb3a…5998 sports 70 markets active 3d ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$7,098 (+3%) realized +$7,098 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate79%55W / 15L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$3,076per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$486est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,432
14 days−$7,933
30 days−$6,564
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$5,110
other 17% +$1,808
politics 11% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.9% -10.4% 40% 30% -12.7%
≤30d 35 -8.2% -16.9% 57% 37% -17.0%
≤90d 70 +16.9% +5.8% 79% 43% -6.6%
all 70 +16.9% +5.8% 79% 43% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.8% 43% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -4.3% 26% -15.6%
15% -13.6% 23% -23.7%
20% -22.0% 14% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$3,016) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +42% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$342 vs −$848 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7,098
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses55 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$486
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage78d
Avg bet$3,076
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $7,566 −$145 -2%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Jun 21 $355 +$145 +41%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $24,000 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $2,498 −$2,464 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $353 +$147 +42%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $511 −$506 -99%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $4,879 +$121 +2%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $491 +$1,509 +308%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $103 −$101 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $140 −$138 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $444 +$56 +12%
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $126 −$124 -98%
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $551 −$547 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $263 +$137 +52%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$24 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $127 −$127 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs Jun 15 $515 −$512 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 15 $1,130 −$1,130 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2,051 −$2,051 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $3,450 −$3,450 -100%
Will Vitality qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $5,964 +$293 +5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $5,317 +$100 +2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $4,121 +$879 +21%
Will Rhoda Magbitang win Top Chef Season 23? Jun 09 $1,427 +$43 +3%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $348 +$152 +44%
Will BetBoom qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $455 +$45 +10%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $4,283 +$61 +1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $1,052 +$70 +7%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $440 +$60 +14%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $469 +$131 +28%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5,145 +$979 +19%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $486 +$314 +65%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $646 −$546 -84%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $3 +$6 +170%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $35 +$54 +153%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner May 24 $136 +$115 +85%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner May 24 $228 +$282 +124%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner May 23 $32 +$16 +49%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 22 $21 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs paiN - Map 2 Winner May 22 $688 +$40 +6%
Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50? May 21 $17,124 +$2,375 +14%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 16 $585 +$82 +14%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 15 $895 +$105 +12%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner May 14 $6 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner May 14 $2,473 +$107 +4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 13 $726 +$274 +38%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 12 $397 +$103 +26%
Will there be a 1v5 ace clutch in the BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026 pla May 04 $1,393 +$44 +3%
Will there be a reverse sweep in the BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026 gran May 03 $416 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 3 Winner May 03 $1,969 +$7 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 71¢ $49 3d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 71¢ $142 3d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 71¢ $94 3d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 71¢ $70 3d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $705 3d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 3d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $202 3d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $107 3d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $60 3d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 3d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $14 3d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 3d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $100 3d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 3d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $178 3d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $36 3d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $756 3d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $137 3d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $555 3d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $47 3d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,383 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 28¢ $72 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 30¢ $152 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 35¢ $57 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 35¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 35¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 35¢ $108 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 35¢ $7 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 39¢ $397 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 56¢ $1,702 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 674 history records