Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:04:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb34…804d other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$62 (-8%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%18W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$54
14 days−$82
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$103
world 32% +$37
sports 17% −$3
culture 1% +$2
politics 1% +$2
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -25.9% -33.0% 46% 46% -22.3%
≤30d 26 -13.0% -21.3% 58% 54% -17.6%
≤90d 32 -18.3% -26.1% 56% 50% -17.2%
all 32 -18.3% -26.1% 56% 50% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 50% -17.2%
10% -33.2% 34% -25.1%
15% -39.6% 19% -32.4%
20% -45.5% 6% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$14 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses18 / 14
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage35d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 39¢ 40¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $19 +$12 +65%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $22 −$22 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $19 +$4 +18%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$14 -67%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $71 +$29 +41%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $46 −$45 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $48 −$2 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $79 +$14 +18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $11 −$7 -64%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $80 −$2 -3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $57 +$25 +43%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 11 $43 +$2 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 11 $9 +$2 +26%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 07 $31 +$12 +39%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $6 +$3 +50%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? May 28 $8 +$2 +22%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $20 +$4 +21%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 23 $16 +$6 +35%
Will "Maid of Honor" - Drake debut week album sales be between 100k an May 21 $10 +$2 +24%
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? May 16 $10 +$4 +35%
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $32 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $31 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 29h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 43¢ $19 41h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 70¢ $22 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $23 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 84¢ $19 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $12 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 92¢ $14 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 59¢ $12 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 47¢ $12 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 38¢ $11 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $12 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $14 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $25 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.24 · official $32.24 (match) · 72 history records