Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:48:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FB 0xfb34…db37 crypto 656 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d only
✗ bot/MM pace (365 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,096 (+6%) realized +$1,098 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate52%339W / 316L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day365.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$35
14 days−$35
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (365 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 651 -1.8% -11.2% 52% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 655 -1.8% -11.2% 52% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 655 -1.8% -11.2% 52% 0% -9.7%
all 655 -1.8% -11.2% 52% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover365.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 0% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$1,098
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses339 / 316
Open positions1
Markets (closed)655 / 656
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$29
Trades / day365.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 655 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Down 96¢ 98¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 8¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $60 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$11 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $29 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $26 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $29 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $29 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.00 · official $30.00 (match) · 3500 history records