Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:14:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FB 0xfb34…6359 sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$136 (+6%) realized +$136 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$99
7 days+$389
14 days+$389
30 days+$259
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$315
other 6% −$90
crypto 2% −$11
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +78.9% +61.8% 80% 80% +49.8%
≤30d 9 +20.3% +8.8% 56% 56% +15.4%
≤90d 22 -13.5% -21.8% 45% 45% -1.9%
all 29 -8.2% -16.9% 52% 48% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 48% -0.7%
10% -24.9% 38% -10.2%
15% -32.2% 34% -18.9%
20% -38.8% 24% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$46 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$136
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage108d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $145 +$99 +68%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $22 +$10 +46%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $102 +$142 +140%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $222 −$11 -5%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $102 +$148 +146%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland May 31 $124 −$122 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $102 −$100 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $116 +$102 +88%
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $102 +$116 +114%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 03 $102 −$100 -98%
Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5 May 01 $145 +$32 +22%
Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5 Apr 29 $150 +$17 +11%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Final Stage: Canada vs. USA Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 28 $100 −$44 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Sabres vs. Bruins Apr 27 $100 +$45 +45%
Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5 Apr 27 $167 +$99 +59%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 29 $102 −$89 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Mar 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA Mar 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Mar 12 $10 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Mar 12 $10 +$1 +5%
First Round Pool B: Mexico vs. Italy Mar 12 $38 +$42 +110%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? Mar 12 $8 −$4 -51%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) Mar 11 $7 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 10 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $244 50m
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $145 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $32 3d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 68¢ $22 4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 41¢ $102 4d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) SELL New Zealand 66¢ $211 4d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 68¢ $222 4d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 40¢ $102 5d
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland BUY Switzerland 54¢ $124 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 43¢ $102 26d
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland BUY Canada 16¢ $10 27d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 52¢ $116 27d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs SELL Timberwolves 64¢ $218 52d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Timberwolves 29¢ $102 52d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Raptors 29¢ $102 54d
Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 72¢ $177 56d
Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 58¢ $145 56d
Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 67¢ $167 58d
Flyers vs. Penguins SELL Flyers 15¢ $53 59d
Flyers vs. Penguins SELL Flyers 16¢ $3 59d
Flyers vs. Penguins BUY Flyers 26¢ $100 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 59d
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Sabres vs. Bruins SELL Sabres 91¢ $145 60d
Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 59¢ $150 60d
Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 100¢ $0 60d
Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 100¢ $266 60d
Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 62¢ $167 60d
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Sabres vs. Bruins BUY Sabres 62¢ $100 69d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 66¢ $100 75d
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils SELL Connecticut Huskies $13 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records