Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:18:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb32…db85 world 454 markets active 1h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$39,655 (+8%) realized +$22,371 · open +$1,540
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate55%248W / 201L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$1,117per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$4,408now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,348
7 days−$1,445
14 days−$1,188
30 days−$1,601
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 98% +$24,361
other 2% −$173
politics 1% −$197
finance 0% −$29
sports 0% −$34
crypto 0% −$26
culture 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -20.3% -27.9% 40% 10% -30.2%
≤30d 18 -16.8% -24.8% 39% 22% -27.1%
≤90d 120 -6.8% -15.7% 53% 23% -8.2%
all 449 -1.7% -11.1% 55% 30% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 30% -5.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 18% -14.4%
15% -27.4% 12% -22.7%
20% -34.5% 9% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$1,400) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$195 vs −$130 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$4,408
Realized+$22,371
Unrealized+$1,540
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses248 / 201
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)449 / 454
History coverage252d
Avg bet$1,117
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 449 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 71¢ 100¢ $713 $1,010 +$297 (+42%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 85¢ 83¢ $1,000 $982 −$18 (-2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Yes 58¢ 100¢ $556 $963 +$407 (+73%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 32¢ 100¢ $300 $949 +$649 (+216%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Yes 59¢ 100¢ $300 $505 +$205 (+68%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Yes 31¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? Yes 20¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Yes $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $3,600 −$1,351 -38%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 14 $300 +$3 +1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $500 −$116 -23%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 12 $200 +$11 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 12 $200 −$10 -5%
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? Jun 11 $100 −$87 -87%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1,000 −$96 -10%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $400 +$207 +52%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $300 +$158 +53%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $200 +$98 +49%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 29 $120 +$97 +81%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 26 $41 −$41 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $250 −$78 -31%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $30 −$13 -43%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $100 −$75 -75%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $901 −$303 -34%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $100 −$3 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 07 $400 −$143 -36%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 05 $1,430 −$214 -15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 02 $320 −$293 -92%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $508 −$98 -19%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 25 $500 +$6 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $700 −$156 -22%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 25 $1,200 +$166 +14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Apr 25 $1,300 +$396 +30%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $1,550 +$10 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 25 $500 +$186 +37%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Apr 24 $200 −$21 -10%
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $100 −$34 -34%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $300 −$40 -13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $3,058 −$1,216 -40%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $300 +$2 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 19 $500 −$161 -32%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $400 −$29 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $200 −$13 -7%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? Apr 16 $500 +$64 +13%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? Apr 16 $4,000 +$31 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 16 $4,900 +$579 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $7,700 +$1,346 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 16 $20 +$7 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 16 $40 +$13 +32%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $2,050 −$264 -13%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026? Apr 15 $5,851 +$400 +7%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 13 $200 −$2 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 12 $150 −$29 -19%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 11 $300 −$2 -1%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by A Apr 11 $1,900 +$87 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,000 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $3,097 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $341 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $969 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $150 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $2,091 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $900 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $953 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $190 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,000 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,003 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $500 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 99¢ $668 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,000 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $987 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $1,000 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $100 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,000 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $70 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $200 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $194 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 60¢ $200 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 59¢ $100 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY Yes 65¢ $400 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 26¢ $155 8h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 60¢ $107 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 28¢ $168 13h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 56¢ $100 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $200 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $100 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,407.91 · official $4,407.91 (match) · 3500 history records