Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:03:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FB 0xfb32…0035 crypto 188 markets active 0h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$140 (+1%) realized +$162 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%69W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$263
7 days+$184
14 days+$184
30 days+$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$397
other 15% +$484
world 4% −$55
sports 4% +$177
politics 2% −$5
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +0.9% -8.7% 40% 33% +1.7%
≤30d 52 +0.9% -8.7% 40% 33% +1.7%
≤90d 117 -8.0% -16.8% 44% 41% -8.7%
all 171 -13.0% -21.3% 40% 37% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 37% -7.4%
10% -28.8% 36% -16.2%
15% -35.7% 33% -24.3%
20% -42.0% 28% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$36 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized+$162
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses69 / 102
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions14
Markets (closed)171 / 188
History coverage178d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? No 70¢ 64¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-9%)
Will Morocco finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Brazil finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 25¢ 31¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+24%)
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 54¢ 56¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 48¢ 7¢ $24 $4 −$20 (-85%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 61¢ 66¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 71¢ 76¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will France be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Switzerland reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 62¢ 20¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-68%)
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 27¢ 44¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+65%)
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 26¢ 12¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 16 $8 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$14 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $36 +$34 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$15 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$34 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$13 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$10 +96%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $101 +$45 +45%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $25 +$18 +71%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$35 +70%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $26 +$64 +250%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$58 +114%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$17 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$10 +34%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 14 $90 −$3 -4%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 14 $83 −$3 -4%
Will Morocco go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 14 $42 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 14 $90 $0 +0%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$55 +109%
Will Harry Kane score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -13%
Will Mikel Merino score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $4 $0 -11%
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Jun 14 $20 −$1 -4%
Will 1+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA Jun 14 $5 −$1 -18%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Jun 14 $16 −$3 -20%
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 14 $16 −$1 -8%
Will 2+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA Jun 14 $10 −$5 -44%
Will Marc Guéhi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -34%
Will Ismael Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $11 −$1 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $198 −$34 -17%
Will Japan finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 13 $21 −$11 -51%
Will Christian Pulisic score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $23 −$13 -57%
Will Tahith Chong score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $11 −$6 -58%
Will Ezri Konsa be in England's Starting 11? Jun 13 $12 −$6 -47%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 13 $15 $0 -3%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $19 $0 +2%
Will Lamine Yamal score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $14 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $21 $0 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +109%
Will Anthony Gordon be in England's Starting 11? Jun 13 $11 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 18¢ $1 2m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 20¢ $4 3m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 6m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 26¢ $8 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Gro SELL No 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Gro SELL No 56¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Gro SELL No 56¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Gro SELL No 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Gro SELL No 55¢ $5 1h
Will France be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group St SELL Yes 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
Will France be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group St SELL Yes 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.35 · official $188.27 · 837 history records