Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:31:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb31…9893 sports 185 markets active 2h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%8W / 177L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$8
politics 23% −$3
other 20% −$3
economics 9% −$1
world 7% −$1
crypto 7% −$1
culture 5% −$1
tech 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 3 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 5 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 185 -0.1% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses8 / 177
Open positions0
Markets (closed)185 / 185
History coverage173d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 185 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 28 $33 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 15 $33 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $185 $0 -0%
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 May 25 $33 $0 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 18 $28 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 23 $106 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 22 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 22 $97 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 22 $227 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 22 $160 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $143 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 22 $72 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $36 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 22 $32 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 22 $158 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 22 $36 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $121 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 21 $64 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 21 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 21 $156 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $122 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 21 $107 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $80 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 21 $177 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 21 $187 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 21 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 21 $77 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 21 $134 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 21 $106 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 21 $220 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 21 $81 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 21 $124 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 21 $136 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 13, 2026 (ET)? Feb 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 21 $47 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 21 $116 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 20 $72 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 20 $96 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? Feb 20 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 20 $77 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 20 $86 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February? Feb 20 $80 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 20 $140 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 20 $96 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 20 $168 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 20 $40 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 20 $40 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)? Feb 20 $36 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 98¢ $33 2h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 98¢ $33 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 95¢ $33 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 95¢ $33 13d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $33 20d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $34 20d
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 SELL No 97¢ $33 33d
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY No 97¢ $33 33d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $28 40d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $28 41d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $33 124d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 92¢ $6 125d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 92¢ $6 125d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 96¢ $2 125d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 96¢ $2 125d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 96¢ $4 125d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 96¢ $4 125d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $2 125d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $2 125d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $33 125d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $38 125d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $38 125d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $32 125d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $32 125d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $36 125d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $36 125d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 96¢ $32 125d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 96¢ $33 125d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $32 125d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $32 125d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 764 history records