Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:21:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FB 0xfb2e…a7d7 crypto 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$59 (+0%) realized +$61 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate86%79W / 13L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$590per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$914now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$11
14 days+$16
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$58
culture 3% −$1
sports 3% −$1
politics 3% −$1
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 29 +0.1% -9.4% 93% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 83 +0.1% -9.4% 95% 0% -9.4%
all 92 +0.1% -9.4% 86% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$877) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.95 per $1 lost it wins $9.95
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$914
Realized+$61
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses79 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)92 / 93
History coverage229d
Avg bet$590
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $916 $914 −$2 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $915 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $914 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $912 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $908 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $907 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $905 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 15? Jun 15 $903 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 13? Jun 13 $901 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $900 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 10? Jun 10 $900 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $899 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $898 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $896 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on June 7? Jun 07 $895 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $894 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 4? Jun 04 $893 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 3? Jun 03 $607 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 3? Jun 03 $285 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 2? Jun 02 $842 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 2? Jun 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 1? Jun 01 $135 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 1? Jun 01 $232 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 1? Jun 01 $283 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 1? Jun 01 $240 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30? May 30 $888 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 29? May 29 $887 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 28? May 28 $886 +$2 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on May 27? May 27 $419 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on May 27? May 27 $467 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 24? May 24 $835 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on May 24? May 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on May 23? May 23 $156 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 23? May 23 $728 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 22? May 22 $819 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on May 22? May 22 $64 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 21? May 21 $216 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on May 21? May 21 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 21? May 21 $496 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 20? May 20 $661 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on May 20? May 20 $221 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? May 19 $880 +$2 +0%
Will Solana reach $100 May 11-17? May 18 $706 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.60 May 11-17? May 18 $174 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on May 17? May 17 $305 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on May 17? May 17 $573 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on May 15? May 15 $877 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on May 14? May 14 $876 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on May 13? May 13 $875 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 12? May 11 $876 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,900 on May 11? May 11 $875 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $916 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $915 40h
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $914 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $912 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $908 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $907 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $905 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $903 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $901 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $900 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $900 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $899 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $898 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? SELL No 100¢ $275 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? SELL No 100¢ $368 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? SELL No 100¢ $40 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? SELL No 100¢ $215 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $140 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $755 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $895 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $894 19d
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $893 20d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $607 21d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $285 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $50 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $842 22d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $35 24d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $100 24d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $133 24d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $100 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $913.69 · official $913.69 (match) · 216 history records