Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:41:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb2e…cc6b sports 405 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$156 (-0%) realized −$173 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%204W / 190L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$355est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$273now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$212
14 days−$433
30 days−$795
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$387
crypto 35% −$1,074
other 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -65.8% -69.0% 25% 25% -56.1%
≤30d 52 -24.2% -31.4% 38% 37% -22.3%
≤90d 394 -1.7% -11.1% 52% 51% -11.5%
all 394 -1.7% -11.1% 52% 51% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 51% -11.5%
10% -19.6% 51% -19.9%
15% -27.3% 51% -27.7%
20% -34.5% 46% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$90 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$273
Realized−$173
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses204 / 190
Est. fees paid−$355
Open positions11
Markets (closed)394 / 405
History coverage84d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 394 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Under 45¢ 66¢ $30 $44 +$14 (+48%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Seattle Mariners 52¢ 55¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+5%)
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Over 54¢ 55¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Mallorca Championships: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Fabian Marozsan Miomir Kecmanovic 51¢ 50¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card) Rafael Fiziev 50¢ 50¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Under 52¢ 50¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Braxton Ashcraft: Strikeouts O/U 5.5 Under 41¢ 50¢ $14 $18 +$3 (+22%)
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 56¢ 56¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Aaron Nola: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 Over 48¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 93 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs Nakashima Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $146 +$54 +37%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $56 −$56 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $98 −$98 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $94 −$94 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $151 −$120 -80%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 14 $104 −$3 -3%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $99 +$101 +101%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 166.5 Jun 11 $104 +$96 +92%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $90 −$90 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 08 $92 −$92 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 08 $17 −$17 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $203 −$3 -2%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $113 +$87 +76%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $102 −$102 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $203 +$189 +93%
Spread: New York Liberty (-3.5) Jun 06 $102 −$102 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $138 +$62 +45%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $26 −$25 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 06 $102 +$98 +97%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $117 +$82 +70%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 05 $106 −$106 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe S Jun 04 $42 +$58 +138%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $46 −$46 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 04 $103 +$97 +93%
Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs Gaimin Gladiators (+1.5) Jun 03 $43 −$43 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) Jun 03 $102 −$100 -98%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 03 $102 +$1 +1%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 03 $104 +$96 +92%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $102 +$107 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $102 −$10 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -94%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 01 $203 −$200 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 May 31 $203 +$182 +90%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 31 $132 +$85 +65%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 May 30 $101 −$100 -99%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 May 30 $203 −$200 -99%
Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire: O/U 164.5 May 30 $106 +$94 +89%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-4.5) May 30 $102 +$101 +100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 165.5 May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 167.5 May 29 $102 +$98 +97%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 29 $102 +$103 +101%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 175.5 May 28 $102 −$100 -98%
Atlanta Dream vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 163.5 May 28 $253 +$185 +73%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Group May 26 $202 −$200 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Aaron Nola: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 56¢ $9 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 45¢ $30 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 54¢ $30 1h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $30 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 1h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 50¢ $30 4h
Mallorca Championships: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Fabian Marozsan BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 51¢ $30 5h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Seattle Mariners 52¢ $30 5h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Under 52¢ $30 5h
Braxton Ashcraft: Strikeouts O/U 5.5 BUY Under 41¢ $15 5h
Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs Nakashima BUY Minaur 62¢ $10 5d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $203 5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $56 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 73¢ $146 8d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 49¢ $98 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $102 9d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 47¢ $94 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 60¢ $120 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 40¢ $2 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 40¢ $24 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 40¢ $32 10d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 51¢ $101 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 21¢ $31 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 45¢ $90 14d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 166.5 BUY Over 52¢ $74 14d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 166.5 BUY Over 52¢ $18 14d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 166.5 BUY Over 52¢ $12 14d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY BetBoom Team 49¢ $99 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $272.93 · official $272.94 (match) · 801 history records