Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:57:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

FB 0xfb2c…fbcb crypto 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$17 (+7%) realized +$29 · open −$12

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip

Net edge-42%after slip

Net WR14%break-even

Win rate18%4W / 18L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$10per market

Trades / day37.6pace

Fees−$9est.

Kalshi-fit92%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +14%

net ROI/market (all)-32.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	-24.9%	-32.0%	18%	14%	-29.9%
≤30d	22	-24.9%	-32.0%	18%	14%	-29.9%
≤90d	22	-24.9%	-32.0%	18%	14%	-29.9%
all	22	-24.9%	-32.0%	18%	14%	-29.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover37.6 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-32.0%	14%	-29.9%
10% ← realistic here	-38.6%	9%	-36.6%
15%	-44.5%	9%	-42.8%
20%	-49.9%	9%	-48.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 55% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -25% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +7% → late -56% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.39 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$29

Unrealized−$12

Win rate (resolved)18%

Wins / losses4 / 18

Est. fees paid−$9

Open positions2

Markets (closed)22 / 24

History coverage2d

Avg bet$10

Trades / day37.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	4¢	0¢	$2	$0	−$2 (-99%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs	Team Vitality	38¢	0¢	$10	$0	−$10 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs	Jun 15	$21	+$2	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo	Jun 15	$63	+$2	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Jun 14	$1	$0	-22%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Jun 14	$10	−$4	-38%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-76%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	Jun 14	$10	−$1	-7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Jun 14	$1	+$2	+181%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$1	$0	-13%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 0.5	Jun 13	$1	−$1	-97%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs	Jun 13	$10	−$2	-20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Jun 13	$1	−$1	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Jun 13	$1	+$8	+705%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Jun 13	$1	−$1	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Jun 13	$1	−$1	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Jun 13	$1	−$1	-100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play	Jun 13	$46	−$13	-28%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	BUY Team Vitality	38¢	$10	1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	SELL Team Vitality	32¢	$41	1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	3¢	$1	2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	BUY Team Vitality	20¢	$15	2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	BUY Team Vitality	35¢	$20	2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	4¢	$1	2h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs	SELL Solary	2¢	$0	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	BUY Up	3¢	$1	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	BUY Up	15¢	$1	2h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs	SELL Solary	16¢	$3	2h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs	SELL Solary	12¢	$19	3h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs	BUY Solary	11¢	$21	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	BUY Up	11¢	$1	3h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo	BUY XLG Gaming	5¢	$3	3h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo	BUY XLG Gaming	47¢	$15	3h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo	SELL XLG Gaming	36¢	$16	3h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo	BUY XLG Gaming	33¢	$15	4h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo	SELL XLG Gaming	26¢	$46	4h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo	BUY XLG Gaming	11¢	$6	4h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo	BUY XLG Gaming	11¢	$2	4h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo	BUY XLG Gaming	19¢	$1	4h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo	BUY XLG Gaming	19¢	$20	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	SELL Down	21¢	$1	34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Down	24¢	$1	34h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	SELL Top Esports	15¢	$6	34h
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs	SELL BASEMENT BOYS	2¢	$0	34h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	BUY Top Esports	23¢	$10	35h
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs	BUY BASEMENT BOYS	11¢	$1	35h
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs	BUY BASEMENT BOYS	9¢	$1	35h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	SELL Gen.G	61¢	$9	35h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 85 history records