Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:24:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FB
0xfb2b…cadf
other · 114 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$10,669 -37%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9,726 · open −$1,674
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$1,797
Realized−$9,726
Unrealized−$1,674
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses52 / 235
Open positions105
Markets (closed)287 / 114
Avg bet$251
Trades / day130.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit1%
Chart Positions 105 History 287 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,747
7 days−$1,658
14 days−$2,602
30 days−$9,726
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 29¢ 70¢ $147 $349 +$201 (+137%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 10¢ 42¢ $45 $193 +$147 (+325%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 46¢ 42¢ $185 $166 −$19 (-10%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 18¢ $29 $131 +$102 (+355%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 10¢ 35¢ $36 $125 +$90 (+250%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 12¢ $34 $109 +$76 (+225%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 18¢ $19 $93 +$73 (+381%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 34¢ 26¢ $102 $77 −$25 (-25%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $27 $53 +$26 (+95%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $47 $52 +$5 (+10%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-15%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 16¢ $10 $39 +$29 (+303%)
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $7 $26 +$20 (+300%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 11¢ 5¢ $55 $24 −$31 (-56%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 10¢ $9 $24 +$15 (+173%)
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $7 $22 +$15 (+206%)
Will Elon Musk post 720-759 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $7 $21 +$14 (+198%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 19¢ 4¢ $95 $19 −$76 (-80%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+17%)
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $6 $17 +$11 (+186%)
Will Elon Musk post 600-639 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+66%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $29 $15 −$13 (-47%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $50 $11 −$39 (-79%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $24 $10 −$14 (-58%)
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $4 $9 +$5 (+137%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$27 -701%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $28 −$33 -116%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $34 −$68 -199%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Jun 12 $41 −$112 -275%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Jun 12 $28 −$90 -325%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$26 -1397%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $17 −$30 -179%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $112 −$149 -133%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? Jun 12 $32 +$188 +590%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$14 -604%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 12 $8 +$302 +3548%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Will White House post 0-19 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$2 -190%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $17 +$21 +121%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Jun 12 $13 −$114 -884%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? Jun 12 $7 +$1,655 +23721%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026? Jun 12 $35 −$53 -151%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? Jun 12 $109 −$239 -219%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$8 -983%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? Jun 12 $6 +$875 +14102%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 12 $9 +$85 +952%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? Jun 12 $15 −$313 -2110%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? Jun 12 $230 −$383 -166%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 12 $284 −$284 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 12 $18 −$22 -120%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$46 -2126%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $14 +$36 +258%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026? Jun 12 $68 −$132 -195%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026? Jun 12 $70 −$155 -222%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 12 $16 −$139 -854%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$23 -2212%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$2 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Jun 12 $7 +$554 +8340%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $35 −$53 -154%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$108 -1822%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? Jun 12 $14 −$206 -1521%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026? Jun 12 $158 −$158 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $12 −$72 -589%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 12 $7 −$39 -581%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 12 $39 −$59 -151%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -106%
Will White House post 100-119 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$2 -227%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $35 −$53 -154%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% −$5,700
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $5 50m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $44 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $34 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $7 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 3h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $3 3h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 3h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $4 3h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $47 3h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 3h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 3h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 3h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 3h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 3h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 3h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $29 3h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 3h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $19 4h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $14 4h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $32 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+57.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 186 +83.3% +65.9% 17% 17% -11.5%
≤30d 287 +74.4% +57.7% 18% 18% -40.2%
≤90d 287 +74.4% +57.7% 18% 18% -40.2%
all 287 +74.4% +57.7% 18% 18% -40.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover130.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +57.7% 18% -40.2%
10% ← realistic here +42.7% 18% -45.9%
15% +28.9% 17% -51.1%
20% +16.2% 16% -55.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,796.95 · official $1,797.00 (match) · 3500 history records