Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:01:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb29…33b9 world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate28%11W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$3
other 24% −$4
politics 22% −$1
culture 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +2.0% -7.7% 33% 11% -8.2%
≤30d 12 +1.5% -8.2% 25% 8% -8.5%
≤90d 12 +1.5% -8.2% 25% 8% -8.5%
all 39 -7.2% -16.1% 28% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 3% -9.9%
10% -24.1% 3% -18.5%
15% -31.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -38.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses11 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage302d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $33 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $16 +$4 +22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $5 $0 +2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $30 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $12 −$1 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $27 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $31 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jan 31 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 27 $14 $0 +3%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Nov 20 $12 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October? Oct 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Diddy be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 23 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $11 +$1 +6%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 12 $2 $0 -9%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Sep 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 08 $3 −$1 -26%
Will Eric Adams win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 02 $3 $0 -5%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $3 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 02 $9 $0 -0%
Will PPP/C win the most seats in the 2025 Guyana National Assembly ele Sep 02 $2 −$1 -42%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $19 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31? Sep 02 $19 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in August? Aug 29 $1 $0 -29%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 27 $33 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 27 $33 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 27 $33 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 27 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $37 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 23h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 60¢ $19 26h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 49¢ $16 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $11 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $11 43h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $29 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $2 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $4 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $13 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $13 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 6¢ $5 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 5¢ $5 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $30 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 5d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 5d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $12 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $2 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $29 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $13 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $18 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 20¢ $6 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 20¢ $10 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $15 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $27 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $27 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.82 · official $36.80 (match) · 151 history records