Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:59:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb29…3084 crypto 803 markets active 6d ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (160 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,548 (-24%) realized −$2,548 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate64%511W / 292L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day160.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (160 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -7.5%
≤30d 803 -1.1% -10.5% 64% 2% -10.6%
≤90d 803 -1.1% -10.5% 64% 2% -10.6%
all 803 -1.1% -10.5% 64% 2% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover160.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 2% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 1% -19.1%
15% -26.9% 1% -26.9%
20% -34.1% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,548
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses511 / 292
Open positions0
Markets (closed)803 / 803
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day160.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 803 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 29 $6 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 29 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 29 $4 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 29 $6 −$1 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 29 $14 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 29 $22 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 29 $12 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 29 $5 $0 -5%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 29 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 29 $14 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 29 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 29 $22 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET May 29 $15 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET May 29 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET May 29 $22 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET May 29 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 29 $5 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 29 $5 $0 -6%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 29 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 29 $38 +$3 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 29 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 29 $22 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 29 $12 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 29 $5 $0 -5%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 29 $10 −$2 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 29 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 29 $22 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 29 $6 −$1 -11%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 29 $6 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 29 $6 −$1 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 29 $6 −$1 -10%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 29 $6 −$1 -14%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 29 $5 $0 -6%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 29 $13 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 29 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 29 $22 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 29 $5 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 29 $23 −$8 -36%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 29 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 29 $38 −$33 -87%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 29 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 29 $22 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 29 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 29 $12 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET May 29 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET May 29 $22 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET May 29 $5 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET May 29 $13 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 6d
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 19d
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 19d
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 19d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 19d
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 19d
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 19d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 19d
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $8 19d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $6 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $8 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 19d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $9 19d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 19d
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 19d
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 19d
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 19d
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 19d
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $0 19d
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 19d
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 19d
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $7 19d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $8 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records