Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:55:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FB 0xfb29…48c8 other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 247d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$157 (+21%) realized +$157 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate58%28W / 20L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days+$138
14 days+$150
30 days+$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$180
sports 10% −$9
world 3% −$20
crypto 1% −$1
politics 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +14.7% +3.8% 70% 65% +17.7%
≤30d 37 -0.9% -10.3% 57% 54% +8.7%
≤90d 37 -0.9% -10.3% 57% 54% +8.7%
all 48 +1.3% -8.4% 58% 54% +8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 54% +8.5%
10% -17.1% 52% -1.9%
15% -25.1% 44% -11.4%
20% -32.5% 27% -20.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$10 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$157
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses28 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage247d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 +$15 +30%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $19 +$9 +48%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$23 +112%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$8 -82%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$9 +30%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$21 +41%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$18 +177%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $19 +$21 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8 +$12 +151%
BNB Up or Down on October 20? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on November 16? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025? Dec 16 $1 −$1 -71%
Will Elon Musk be the next CEO of X? Dec 14 $1 $0 -24%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 14 $2 −$1 -37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 30? Nov 30 $1 $0 +13%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 23 $1 $0 +38%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Nov 17 $1 $0 -33%
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 31? Oct 26 $1 $0 +30%
BNB Up or Down on October 23? Oct 26 $1 +$1 +96%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 22 $2 +$1 +33%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum ETF Flows on October 20? Oct 21 $1 $0 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $66 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $151 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 37h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 78¢ $16 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $19 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $43 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 4d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 6d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 6d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 7d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records