Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:57:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb29…a7ee politics 261 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$55 (-1%) realized −$36 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%69W / 191L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$49
14 days−$49
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$6
sports 27% −$50
other 23% −$16
crypto 7% −$1
world 4% $0
weather 1% −$20
economics 1% −$1
finance 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -7.5% -16.3% 8% 0% -21.8%
≤30d 51 -2.0% -11.3% 14% 0% -12.5%
≤90d 151 -0.7% -10.2% 18% 0% -11.3%
all 260 -1.7% -11.0% 27% 0% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -10.9%
10% -19.5% 0% -19.5%
15% -27.3% 0% -27.2%
20% -34.4% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$36
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses69 / 191
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)260 / 261
History coverage150d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 260 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 28? Yes 45¢ 29¢ $54 $35 −$19 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Al Jun 27 $56 −$1 -2%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? Jun 27 $56 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 29? Jun 27 $1 $0 -3%
Over $3M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? Jun 27 $41 −$1 -3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $10 −$1 -13%
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA Wor Jun 24 $76 −$37 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 25? Jun 24 $8 $0 -3%
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 24 $59 −$7 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or higher on June 24? Jun 23 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 25? Jun 23 $1 $0 -4%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $40 $0 -0%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $37 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 11 $25 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $410 −$14 -4%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $413 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $24 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $7 $0 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $17 $0 -1%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $36 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $35 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $36 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $24 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $18 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $33 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $8 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $53 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $25 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $6 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5AM ET Jun 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $18 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $34 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $32 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $30 $0 -0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 01 $36 −$2 -4%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $28 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $54 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $50 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $43 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 31 $10 $0 +1%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $27 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? May 30 $14 $0 -0%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 30 $8 $0 -1%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $21 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 28? BUY Yes 45¢ $54 58m
Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Al SELL Yes 85¢ $55 1h
Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Al BUY Yes 86¢ $56 1h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? SELL Yes 46¢ $55 1h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY Yes 46¢ $56 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 29? SELL Yes 45¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 29? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 2h
Over $3M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? SELL Yes 76¢ $19 4h
Over $3M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? SELL Yes 77¢ $13 5h
Over $3M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? SELL Yes 74¢ $8 3d
Over $3M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY Yes 77¢ $41 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 24? SELL Up 18¢ $9 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 20¢ $10 3d
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA Wor SELL Yes 19¢ $21 3d
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA Wor SELL Yes 19¢ $3 3d
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA Wor SELL Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA Wor SELL Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA Wor SELL Yes 19¢ $2 3d
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA Wor SELL Yes 19¢ $11 3d
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA Wor BUY Yes 37¢ $76 3d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 25? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 25? SELL Yes 41¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 25? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 25? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 25? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 3d
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $52 3d
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $59 4d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or higher on June 24? SELL Yes 54¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or higher on June 24? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 25? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.85 · official $34.85 (match) · 1239 history records