Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:06:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb28…e12f world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$19 (-1%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate26%10W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$8
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% −$6
other 12% −$13
finance 2% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 28 -1.3% -10.7% 25% 4% -10.1%
≤90d 34 -1.0% -10.5% 24% 3% -9.8%
all 39 -8.5% -17.3% 26% 3% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 3% -10.3%
10% -25.2% 0% -18.9%
15% -32.4% 0% -26.7%
20% -39.0% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage535d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $35 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $42 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $59 $0 -0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $38 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $201 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $45 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $15 −$3 -17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $131 −$4 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $6 $0 +7%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $14 −$2 -14%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 09 $1 $0 -12%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $47 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $50 −$3 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $23 +$4 +18%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $50 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $134 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $41 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $46 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $84 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 31 $28 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $63 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $51 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $34 −$3 -7%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $93 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 24 $10 $0 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $44 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $47 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 13 $9 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 13 $448 +$2 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 12 $233 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 11 $4 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 13–20? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Brighton win on 2025-01-04? Jan 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-04? Jan 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $21 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $14 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $35 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $23 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $23 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $39 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 90¢ $38 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $38 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $39 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $35 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $35 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $24 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $11 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $26 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $6 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $30 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $36 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $36 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $36 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $15 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $9 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $4 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $28 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $13 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 172 history records