Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:49:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FB 0xfb28…b50a crypto 1457 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 100d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,155 (-6%) realized −$2,155 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate65%954W / 503L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day23.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days+$81
14 days+$80
30 days−$725
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,622
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +5.8% -4.3% 90% 72% -3.2%
≤30d 259 -2.3% -11.6% 81% 41% -13.1%
≤90d 1059 -3.9% -13.0% 74% 28% -15.2%
all 1457 -6.6% -15.5% 65% 32% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 32% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 25% -23.7%
15% -31.0% 25% -31.1%
20% -37.7% 23% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$23 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,155
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses954 / 503
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1457 / 1457
History coverage100d ⚠
Avg bet$27
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1457 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$11 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$11 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$9 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$11 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $50 +$9 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $40 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$10 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$9 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $50 +$10 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$9 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$8 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$8 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $41 −$41 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $41 −$41 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $40 +$7 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 23 $39 +$8 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $41 +$28 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$8 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $20 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$4 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$10 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$11 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$8 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$8 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$9 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$8 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$11 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$11 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$10 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$8 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 09 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 09 $50 −$50 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 09 $51 −$51 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 09 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 09 $50 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 09 $51 +$6 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $51 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $51 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $51 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $51 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $50 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $51 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $51 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $50 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $51 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $46 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $51 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $51 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $40 44h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $41 45h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $41 45h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $40 46h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $39 46h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 46h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 46h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 46h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 46h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 46h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $22 46h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $40 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records