Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:10:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FB 0xfb27…979e crypto 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$80 (-5%) realized −$76 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%20W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day20.6pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$367now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$81
14 days−$132
30 days−$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$121
other 25% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -24.2% -31.4% 33% 33% -21.5%
≤30d 36 -7.0% -15.8% 56% 50% -19.8%
≤90d 36 -7.0% -15.8% 56% 50% -19.8%
all 36 -7.0% -15.8% 56% 50% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 50% -19.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 47% -27.5%
15% -31.2% 36% -34.5%
20% -38.0% 19% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$20 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$367
Realized−$76
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses20 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage8d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day20.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $371 $367 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$11 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $288 −$66 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $105 −$12 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 19 $76 +$25 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $37 −$5 -14%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $30 −$20 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $23 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $24 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$9 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $14 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$11 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $60 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $52 +$19 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$13 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$19 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $37 −$26 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$13 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $112 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $113 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $367.05 · official $367.05 (match) · 183 history records