Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:41:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FB 0xfb27…13c9 sports 56 markets active 2d ago coverage 49d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$20 (+10%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%25W / 30L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$30
other 29% +$5
crypto 4% −$4
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -26.6% -33.6% 33% 33% +18.0%
≤30d 24 -2.7% -12.0% 42% 42% +18.4%
≤90d 55 +27.3% +15.2% 45% 45% +5.1%
all 55 +27.3% +15.2% 45% 45% +5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.2% 45% +5.1%
10% +4.2% 44% -5.0%
15% -5.9% 44% -14.2%
20% -15.1% 40% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +68% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses25 / 30
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage49d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +239%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 +$4 +73%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $5 +$5 +101%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $5 +$3 +67%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $5 +$5 +89%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $15 −$2 -10%
Morocco vs. Burundi: Both Teams to Score May 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $3 +$3 +90%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3 +$8 +250%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 May 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $2 +$1 +65%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $5 +$10 +188%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Paris FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 May 18 $9 +$7 +83%
Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $7 +$3 +40%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5 May 08 $2 +$2 +97%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $1 +$1 +65%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score May 07 $5 −$5 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $1 $0 +40%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 May 06 $5 +$7 +146%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 05 $1 +$1 +114%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $2 +$17 +851%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $6 $0 +3%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score May 04 $3 +$2 +50%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score May 03 $3 +$5 +146%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $6 −$3 -48%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner May 02 $2 +$3 +158%
Will Palermo FC vs. US Catanzaro 1929 end in a draw? May 01 $2 −$2 -81%
Leeds United FC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to Score May 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 30 $5 +$6 +114%
SC Braga vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to Score Apr 30 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 29 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 29¢ $5 45h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND United States vs. Parag BUY 10¢ $2 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 BUY Under 17¢ $2 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $2 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 4d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco $1 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5 4d
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 6d
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 17¢ $1 6d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Nigeria 49¢ $5 6d
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $1 6d
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $5 6d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $10 16d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 41¢ $14 16d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $5 16d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $15 16d
Morocco vs. Burundi: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $2 21d
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $5 22d
Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score BUY No 31¢ $1 22d
Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $5 22d
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $3 22d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 22d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 28d
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $2 28d
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $5 28d
Paris FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $9 30d
Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes $1 32d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 71¢ $7 38d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 88 history records