Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:30:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb26…302b other 178 markets active 2h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-1%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%5W / 173L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$3
politics 29% −$2
other 20% −$27
crypto 7% −$1
economics 6% −$1
world 3% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.5% -10.9% 0% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 4 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 5 -0.9% -10.4% 0% 0% -9.9%
all 178 -0.3% -9.8% 3% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -10.1%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses5 / 173
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)178 / 178
History coverage172d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 178 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 26 $26 $0 -2%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $6 $0 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 13 $18 $0 -2%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $116 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Feb 18 $26 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 18 $80 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 18 $188 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 18 $145 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 18 $177 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 18 $28 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? Feb 18 $27 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? Feb 18 $28 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 18 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 18 $25 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 18 $27 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 18 $79 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 18 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 18 $44 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 18 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 18 $21 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 18 $56 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 18 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 18 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 18 $30 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 15 $25 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 15 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 15 $137 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 15 $22 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 15 $47 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 15 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 15 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 15 $247 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Feb 15 $88 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 15 $22 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 15 $107 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 15 $54 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Feb 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 15 $54 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 15 $100 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 15 $22 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 13 $26 $0 -0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 13 $49 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 13 $26 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 92¢ $26 1h
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 93¢ $26 9h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $6 12d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 94¢ $18 12d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $18 13d
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 96¢ $6 13d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $26 26d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $26 26d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $26 38d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $26 39d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 92¢ $26 127d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 92¢ $26 127d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $24 127d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $24 127d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $29 127d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $29 127d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $29 127d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 96¢ $29 127d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $22 127d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $22 127d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $28 127d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $28 127d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 97¢ $27 127d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 97¢ $27 127d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? SELL No 95¢ $28 127d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? BUY No 95¢ $28 127d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 96¢ $22 127d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 96¢ $22 127d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $25 127d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $25 127d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 554 history records