Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:06:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FB 0xfb25…0e5b sports 730 markets active 0h ago coverage 328d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 327d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$882 (-18%) realized −$880 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%307W / 414L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$14
14 days−$11
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$53
crypto 24% −$71
other 3% +$49
culture 1% −$19
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -16.0% -24.0% 38% 38% -29.2%
≤30d 58 -10.1% -18.7% 43% 41% -12.2%
≤90d 155 -5.0% -14.0% 48% 47% -10.8%
all 721 -1.7% -11.1% 43% 40% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 40% -13.0%
10% -19.6% 36% -21.3%
15% -27.4% 31% -28.9%
20% -34.5% 22% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

328d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$880
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses307 / 414
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions9
Markets (closed)721 / 730
History coverage328d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 721 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-48%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 6¢ 11¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+77%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 30¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+30%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Nuclear TigeRES 36¢ 33¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $2 +$1 +47%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $4 +$2 +52%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $2 −$1 -52%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4 +$2 +38%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 −$1 -24%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1 +$2 +169%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 11 $4 +$2 +64%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $2 +$4 +150%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $8 −$7 -90%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Se Jun 09 $3 −$1 -40%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stag Jun 08 $7 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $4 −$3 -66%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 08 $2 $0 +24%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $3 +$2 +57%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2 +$3 +139%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs 1WIN - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs 1WIN - Map 1 Winner Jun 06 $3 +$1 +37%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $6 +$3 +48%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stag Jun 04 $3 +$2 +62%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Grou Jun 03 $5 −$2 -49%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - CCT Europe Series May 29 $9 +$3 +35%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner May 29 $0 $0 +46%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Johnny Speeds (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 May 29 $4 −$1 -37%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner May 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Se May 28 $3 −$1 -26%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Ursa (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #2 May 28 $3 +$1 +47%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs ASTRAL (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series May 26 $4 +$3 +81%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs TNC (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championsh May 26 $4 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs 2007 (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champions May 25 $4 +$2 +57%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CIS LAN Champ May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Rebels Gaming (BO3) - BC Game Masters Cham May 22 $3 −$2 -57%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs OG (BO3) - BC Game Masters Cha May 22 $5 −$1 -20%
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs 1WIN (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $3 −$2 -92%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs 1WIN - Map 2 Winner May 21 $3 +$2 +65%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs 1WIN (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series P May 21 $3 −$1 -38%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs FOKUS (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs May 20 $5 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series May 20 $5 −$3 -67%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner May 20 $1 −$1 -51%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs ALGO Esports - Map 1 Winner May 19 $1 +$3 +500%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs ALGO Esports (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Se May 19 $3 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $1 $0 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner SELL K27 76¢ $1 13m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 36¢ $1 27m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 36¢ $1 29m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner BUY K27 44¢ $1 37m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner SELL Nuclear TigeRES 38¢ $2 43m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 28¢ $2 46m
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 14h
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 16h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 16h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 17h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof SELL 100 Thieves 57¢ $3 17h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 40¢ $2 18h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof SELL K27 48¢ $3 18h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 29¢ $2 18h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner SELL HOTU 16¢ $1 24h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY HOTU 28¢ $2 24h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner BUY HOTU 33¢ $2 24h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 28¢ $1 42h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 28¢ $1 42h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 91¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 66¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 6¢ $0 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 14¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 28¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 13¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 38¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 38¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.60 · official $19.60 (match) · 3500 history records