Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:06:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FB
0xfb24…bffd
sports · 324 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$76 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$73 · open +$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$103
Realized+$73
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses186 / 121
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions17
Markets (closed)307 / 324
History coverage71d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day38.0
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 17 History 307 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days−$151
14 days+$30
30 days+$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 94¢ 99¢ $29 $30 +$2 (+5%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Under 52¢ 54¢ $17 $17 +$1 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 86¢ 73¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-15%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Yes 83¢ 88¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 80¢ 98¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+22%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 26¢ 27¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 67¢ 88¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+31%)
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Yes 82¢ 76¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 38¢ 39¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+2%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by July 31? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Yes 83¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 89¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Yes 21¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -7%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Modo Serio (BO3) - The International South America O Jun 13 $18 +$2 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $30 +$5 +17%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $6 +$19 +310%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $4 +$2 +54%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $31 −$1 -4%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $4 −$3 -62%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -56%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 11 $27 −$1 -6%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 10 $2 +$1 +57%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +13%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $13 −$13 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $2 $0 +2%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 10 $6 +$5 +88%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $24 +$19 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +33%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +32%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Fuego win LRN 2026 Split 1? Jun 09 $1 $0 +11%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $30 +$33 +109%
First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election? Jun 09 $1 $0 +5%
LoL: GMBLERS ESPORTS vs NightBirds (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $2 $0 +17%
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw? Jun 08 $9 +$1 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $21 −$5 -23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 08 $11 −$11 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $31 −$31 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $6 +$13 +216%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $19 +$18 +93%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $1 +$1 +124%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $9 +$8 +90%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $6 +$7 +100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $3 −$2 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 60% +$57
world 26% +$14
politics 6% +$26
other 4% −$25
crypto 1% +$21
economics 1% −$16
finance 1% $0
weather 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 3m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 48¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $4 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -18.7% -26.5% 47% 36% -28.7%
≤30d 209 -1.9% -11.2% 58% 40% -6.3%
≤90d 307 -1.1% -10.5% 61% 39% -7.1%
all 307 -1.1% -10.5% 61% 39% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover38.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 39% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 30% -16.0%
15% -26.9% 24% -24.1%
20% -34.0% 21% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.96 · official $102.96 (match) · 2961 history records