Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:10:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FB 0xfb23…5410 crypto 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$104 (-2%) realized −$104 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate53%17W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$262
7 days−$113
14 days−$184
30 days+$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$291
sports 19% +$388
other 18% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +2.8% -7.0% 70% 50% -12.3%
≤30d 32 -4.8% -13.8% 53% 41% -8.3%
≤90d 32 -4.8% -13.8% 53% 41% -8.3%
all 32 -4.8% -13.8% 53% 41% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 41% -8.3%
10% -22.1% 38% -17.1%
15% -29.6% 34% -25.1%
20% -36.5% 31% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$109 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses17 / 15
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage17d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $514 +$329 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $82 −$78 -95%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $621 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $411 −$400 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $337 +$63 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $312 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $296 +$104 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $54 +$46 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $46 +$54 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $1,004 +$59 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 15 $81 −$81 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 15 $486 −$234 -48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $87 +$135 +155%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $115 +$107 +93%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $160 +$276 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Jun 13 $154 +$81 +52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $124 +$136 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $129 −$106 -82%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $99 +$41 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10AM ET Jun 09 $242 −$104 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9AM ET Jun 09 $101 +$3 +3%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 09 $97 −$97 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $98 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 06 $109 +$69 +63%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $100 +$197 +197%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $514 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $76 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $3 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 96¢ $632 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $621 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $411 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $312 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $162 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $176 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $187 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $109 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $54 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $46 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1,004 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 53¢ $222 7d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $19 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $106 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $154 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $115 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $124 10d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 12¢ $23 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $160 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 99¢ $156 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 84¢ $133 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 18¢ $18 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 29¢ $79 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 71¢ $202 12d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 64¢ $129 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 78 history records