Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:45:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
FB 0xfb20…3b5c sports 993 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,602 (+1%) realized +$961 · open +$114
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate74%729W / 260L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$233per market
Trades / day49.3pace
Fees−$1,598est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$604now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$755
7 days−$1,108
14 days−$5,358
30 days−$3,353
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$4,510
world 16% +$134
other 16% −$3,473
crypto 2% +$272
finance 1% −$377
politics 1% +$1
culture 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 +4.2% -5.7% 82% 48% -16.5%
≤30d 352 -0.6% -10.1% 73% 49% -12.5%
≤90d 989 +0.8% -8.8% 74% 43% -9.1%
all 989 +0.8% -8.8% 74% 43% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 43% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 23% -17.8%
15% -25.5% 13% -25.8%
20% -32.8% 9% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$171 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$604
Realized+$961
Unrealized+$114
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses729 / 260
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$1,598
Open positions4
Markets (closed)989 / 993
History coverage66d
Avg bet$233
Trades / day49.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 989 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 94¢ $200 $367 +$167 (+83%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Under 76¢ 96¢ $100 $127 +$27 (+27%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Under 83¢ 78¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 6¢ $90 $17 −$73 (-81%)
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 4.5 Under 91¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Under 17¢ 0¢ $374 $0 −$374 (-100%)
Will CA Juventud win on 2026-05-21? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Luciano Darderi vs Alexander Zverev Alexander Zverev 94¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers New York Yankees 77¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Hamburg European Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Felix Auger-Aliassime 95¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Under 89¢ 0¢ $134 $0 −$134 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Under 76¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Under 18¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Fluminense FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 2.5 Under 33¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Under 57¢ 0¢ $643 $0 −$643 (-100%)
IR Iran vs. Gambia: O/U 1.5 Under 28¢ 0¢ $164 $0 −$164 (-100%)
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5 Under 71¢ 0¢ $240 $0 −$240 (-100%)
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $366 +$476 +130%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $302 −$300 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $101 +$21 +21%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $201 +$31 +16%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $100 +$13 +12%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $201 +$37 +18%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$47 +46%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $201 +$65 +32%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $201 +$40 +20%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$87 +86%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $151 +$41 +27%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 14 $100 +$14 +14%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $302 +$60 +20%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $18 +$102 +554%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $302 +$104 +34%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $100 +$11 +11%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $201 +$29 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Jun 13 $36 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $37 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$7 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $17 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $18 +$12 +67%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 13 $39 +$4 +10%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $100 +$6 +6%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $101 −$52 -52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$108 +107%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $603 +$137 +23%
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$4 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $122 +$8 +7%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $100 +$12 +12%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $201 +$49 +24%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 12 $136 +$15 +11%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $202 +$71 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $45 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $384 +$16 +4%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $151 +$14 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $101 32m
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $92 47m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 48m
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 76¢ $101 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 96¢ $842 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $366 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $101 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 80¢ $101 6h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5 SELL Under 100¢ $122 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $201 7h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $232 7h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 89¢ $100 8h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 82¢ $101 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $238 9h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 86¢ $201 15h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $201 15h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $82 20h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $266 20h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 90¢ $18 20h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 80¢ $16 20h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 75¢ $15 20h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 70¢ $17 20h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $101 22h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $201 23h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $241 23h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $188 23h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $101 24h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $201 25h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $192 26h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Morocco 100¢ $115 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $604.08 · official $567.88 · 3500 history records