Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:54:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FB 0xfb1c…963e crypto 505 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 4d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (699 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$417,802 (+1593%) realized +$417,826 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%257W / 246L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day699.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,613
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (699 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 503 -0.6% -10.1% 51% 49% -0.4%
≤30d 503 -0.6% -10.1% 51% 49% -0.4%
≤90d 503 -0.6% -10.1% 51% 49% -0.4%
all 503 -0.6% -10.1% 51% 49% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover699.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 49% -0.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 43% -9.9%
15% -26.5% 36% -18.6%
20% -33.7% 30% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$33 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$158
Realized+$417,826
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses257 / 246
Open positions2
Markets (closed)503 / 505
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$52
Trades / day699.0
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 503 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Up 38¢ 28¢ $57 $43 −$15 (-26%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Up 56¢ 34¢ $22 $13 −$9 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 29 $36 +$13 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$23 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +170%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 29 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 29 $67 −$17 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 29 $54 −$54 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 29 $120 +$80 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $27 −$22 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $45 −$39 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 29 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 29 $7 +$13 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $43 +$56 +130%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $28 +$22 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3AM ET Jun 29 $165 −$165 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 29 $151 −$128 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 29 $88 −$78 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$4 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 29 $29 −$29 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 29 $28 +$20 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 29 $128 +$11 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 29 $8 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 29 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 29 $21 +$9 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 29 $19 −$12 -63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 29 $42 +$75 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 29 $4 +$2 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 29 $36 +$9 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 29 $94 +$94 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 29 $14 −$5 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $81 +$18 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 29 $123 −$53 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $12 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $9 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $13 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $19 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $20 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $7 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $19 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $16 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $0 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $9 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $16 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $0 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $6 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $4 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.02 · official $206.09 · 3500 history records